Week 15 Fantasy Football Analysis

Valued Customers

Generated: 2025-12-12 18:19

55%
Win Probability
+4.3
Projected Margin
CI: [-15.7 to +24.3]
1
Boom Potential
Jason Myers
5
Bust Risk
Omarion Hampton (51%), Bucky Irving (49%), Marcus Mariota (51%), Juwan Johnson (60%), Jameson Williams (48%)

Start/Sit Decisions

Locked Slots (players already played):
RB: 🔒 Bucky Irving 8.1 pts
Pending Decisions:
QB: Start Marcus Mariota over Jordan Love Mariota (19.0) over Love (17.0). Better matchup vs NYG (soft defense), rushing upside with 30.5 prop line.
WR1: Start Jaxon Smith-Njigba over Rashee Rice JSN (22.0) over Rice (17.0). ECR #1 WR vs soft IND defense (rank 25). Prop line 96.5 yards.
WR2: Start Rashee Rice over Jameson Williams Rice (17.0) over JWill (16.0). Slight edge despite LAC's #1 WR defense due to KC offense volume.
TE: Start Juwan Johnson over Hunter Henry Johnson (10.0) over Henry (7.0). Henry faces BUF's #1 TE defense (3.6 pts allowed). Johnson vs soft CAR.
FLEX: Start Jameson Williams over Tetairoa McMillan JWill (16.0) over TMac (14.0). High game total (54.5) in DET-LAR, LAR defense rank 18.
K: Start Jason Myers over N/A Only kicker. ECR K2, SEA heavy favorite.
D/ST: Start Bears D/ST over Rams D/ST Bears (9.0) over Rams (6.0). CLE offense rank 29, low game total 38.5. Rams face DET's elite offense.

Recommended Starting Lineup

LLM-selected modes based on XGBoost and Monte Carlo inputs

SlotPlayerOppESPNLLMModeConfidence
QB Marcus Mariota NYG18.119.0MODERATEMEDIUM
RB Bucky Irving ATL15.214.5MODERATEMEDIUM
RB Omarion Hampton KC11.711.0MODERATEMEDIUM
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba IND20.622.0MODERATEMEDIUM
WR Rashee Rice LAC17.217.0MODERATEMEDIUM
TE Juwan Johnson CAR9.710.0MODERATEMEDIUM
WR Jameson Williams LAR13.916.0MODERATEMEDIUM
K Jason Myers IND8.511.0MODERATEMEDIUM
D/ST Bears D/ST CLE6.69.0MODERATEMEDIUM

Waiver Wire

Add/Drop Recommendations

ADD Chiefs D/ST (D/ST) 43% boom / 21% bust
DROP Marvin Harrison Jr. 42% boom / 19% bust
ADD J.K. Dobbins (RB) 42% boom / 20% bust
ADD Garrett Wilson (WR) 36% boom / 35% bust
DROP Marvin Harrison Jr. 42% boom / 19% bust
Protected (Playoff Positioning)

Jordan Love (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Jacoby Brissett (Elite ceiling (30 pts)), Devin Singletary (Elite ceiling (26 pts)), Tyjae Spears (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Tetairoa McMillan (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Luther Burden III (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Hunter Henry (Elite ceiling (31 pts)), Rams D/ST (Elite ceiling (25 pts))

Hold proven performers, ceiling matters more than this week's matchup

See ML Analysis tab for MC histograms. See Waivers tab for full analysis.

Executive Summary

Week 15 projects to 123 points with Bucky Irving already contributing 8.1 from Thursday's game. Marcus Mariota leads at QB with a favorable NYG matchup (ECR QB13), while Jaxon Smith-Njigba headlines the receivers as the consensus #1 WR against Indianapolis' soft pass defense (rank 25). The FLEX decision goes to Jameson Williams over Tetairoa McMillan, capitalizing on the DET-LAR shootout (54.5 game total). Key concerns include Rashee Rice facing LAC's elite #1 WR defense and Hunter Henry benched against Buffalo's league-best TE coverage.

Key Insights

Matchup Status (Week 15)

8.1 - 10.4 vs Auto DraftKings

Games Completed (1)

PlayerPosSlotActualESPNLLMvs LLM
Bucky Irving RB RB ✓ 8.1 15.2 14.5 -6.4

Games Pending (15)

PlayerPosSlotESPNLLM
Marcus Mariota QB QB 18.1 19.0
Omarion Hampton RB RB 11.7 11.0
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR WR 20.6 22.0
Rashee Rice WR WR 17.2 17.0
Juwan Johnson TE TE 9.7 10.0
Jameson Williams WR RB/WR/TE 13.9 16.0
Jason Myers K K 8.5 11.0
Bears D/ST D/ST D/ST 6.6 9.0
Devin Singletary (bench) RB BE 10.8 9.0
Hunter Henry (bench) TE BE 10.3 7.0
Jordan Love (bench) QB BE 14.8 17.0
Rams D/ST (bench) D/ST BE 4.2 6.0
Tetairoa McMillan (bench) WR BE 13.2 14.0
Tyjae Spears (bench) RB BE 10.1 8.0
Marvin Harrison Jr. (bench) WR IR 0.0 ---
8.1 Actual
124.0 LLM Total
114.4 ESPN Total

Opponent: Auto DraftKings

Opponent Games Completed (2)

PlayerPosSlotActualESPNLLMvs ESPN
Emeka Egbuka WR RB/WR/TE ✓ 10.4 12.0 --- -1.6
Sean Tucker (bench) RB BE ✓ 6.7 2.9 --- +3.8

Opponent Games Pending (14)

PlayerPosSlotESPNLLM
Caleb Williams QB QB 16.1 ---
Jonathan Taylor RB RB 17.6 ---
Kenneth Gainwell RB RB 12.6 ---
A.J. Brown WR WR 16.8 ---
Justin Jefferson WR WR 15.7 ---
Dalton Schultz TE TE 8.9 ---
Jake Elliott K K 8.0 ---
Saints D/ST D/ST D/ST 5.9 ---
C.J. Stroud (bench) QB BE 17.3 ---
Courtland Sutton (bench) WR BE 13.1 ---
David Njoku (bench) TE BE 0.0 ---
Jakobi Meyers (bench) WR BE 11.7 ---
Khalil Shakir (bench) WR BE 10.5 ---
Wan'Dale Robinson (bench) WR BE 14.7 ---
10.4 Opp Actual
95.0 Opp LLM Total
111.9 Opp ESPN Total
Projected Margin: +29.0 pts

Jordan Love (GB vs DEN)

Projections: ESPN 14.8 | LLM 17.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 49% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 27% boom, 21% bust (this week). DEN defense rank 4 vs QB - tough matchup. Game total 42.5. Balanced XGB signals despite tough defense. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 17.0 pts (within 9-24 range).

Context: O/U: 42.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 49% | BOOM: 23%

XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 21% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14CHI17.618.019.3+1.6
13DET15.718.225.8+10.0
12MIN17.4-7.1-10.4
11NYG16.3-17.7+1.3
10PHI17.0-7.8-9.1
9CAR18.1-9.0-9.1
8PIT17.1-28.3+11.2
7ARI17.4-13.4-4.0
6CIN19.3-15.0-4.4
5BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
4DAL18.6-26.3+7.7
3CLE16.0-11.1-4.9
2WSH17.6-20.9+3.3
1DET14.9-15.9+1.0
  • Trending up: 17.4 avg (last 3) vs 11.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.53)
  • Season high: 28.3 pts in Week 8

Jacoby Brissett (ARI vs HOU)

Projections: ESPN 13.9 | LLM 15.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 73% BOOM (historical - small sample). XGB: 14% boom, 37% bust. HOU defense rank 5 vs WR but QB not as affected. Streaming option if needed. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 15.0 pts.

Context: O/U: 42.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 73%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 37% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14LAR15.319.019.0+3.7
13TB17.220.519.6+2.4
12JAX16.7-18.7+1.9
11SF17.9-21.9+3.9
10SEA15.3-19.4+4.2
9DAL19.4-24.8+5.4
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7GB16.6-19.8+3.2
6IND13.4-20.7+7.3
5TEN0.0-0.0+0.0
4SEA0.0-0.0+0.0
3SF0.0-0.0+0.0
2CAR0.0-0.2+0.2
1NO0.1-0.0-0.1
  • 6-game streak of beating projections
  • Averaging 11.7 pts vs 9.4 projected (+24%)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.91)
  • Season high: 24.8 pts in Week 9

Marcus Mariota (WSH vs NYG)

Projections: ESPN 18.1 | LLM 19.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 42% BOOM (historical). XGB: 17% boom, 51% bust (this week). ECR QB13 vs soft NYG defense. Game total 46.5 suggests scoring. Mariota has rushing upside (30.5 rushing prop). Despite XGB bust concern, favorable matchup supports MODERATE mode. Projection: 19.0 pts (within 7-22 range).

Context: O/U: 46.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 15% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 42%

XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 51% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14BYE0.0--2.1-2.1
13BYE14.8-23.3+8.4
12BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
11BYE18.2-15.4-2.8
10BYE16.3-18.7+2.4
9BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
8BYE16.9-11.3-5.6
7BYE0.0-3.9+3.9
6BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
5BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
4ATL0.0-16.2+16.2
3BYE17.0-20.3+3.2
2BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
1BYE0.2-0.0-0.2
  • Averaging 7.6 pts vs 6.0 projected (+28%)
  • Trending down: 7.1 avg (last 3) vs 11.4 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.22)
  • Season high: 23.3 pts in Week 13

Bucky Irving (TB vs ATL)

Projections: ESPN 15.2 | LLM 14.5 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 65% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 11% boom, 49% bust (this week). ATL defense rank 19 vs RB, game total 44.5. Pre-game mode: MODERATE. Pre-game projection: 14.5 pts (within 8-20 range). ACTUAL: 8.1 pts (Thursday night game).

Context: O/U: 44.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 17% | MODERATE: 65% | BOOM: 19%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 49% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14NO16.416.016.1-0.3
13ARI11.812.016.1+4.3
12LAR0.0-0.0+0.0
11BUF0.0-0.0+0.0
10NE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
8NO0.0-0.0+0.0
7DET0.0-0.0+0.0
6SF0.0-0.0+0.0
5SEA0.0-0.0+0.0
4PHI17.5-25.5+8.0
3NYJ17.9-13.9-4.0
2HOU15.9-18.1+2.2
1ATL17.3-14.5-2.8
  • Trending up: 10.7 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.25)
  • Season high: 25.5 pts in Week 4

Tyjae Spears (TEN vs SF)

Projections: ESPN 10.1 | LLM 8.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 67% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 13% boom, 43% bust (this week). SF defense rank 11 vs RB. Game total 44.5 but TEN big underdog. Limited role behind Henry. XGB bust concerns. Mode: MODERATE (low). Projection: 8.0 pts (within 3-15 range).

Context: O/U: 44.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 18% | MODERATE: 67% | BOOM: 15%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 43% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14CLE8.68.06.7-1.9
13JAX9.98.08.4-1.5
12SEA9.6-6.5-3.1
11HOU9.0-8.4-0.6
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9LAC9.5-9.2-0.3
8IND9.5-17.2+7.7
7NE7.8-7.0-0.8
6LV5.6-9.0+3.4
5ARI5.4-1.4-4.0
4HOU0.0-0.0+0.0
3IND0.0-0.0+0.0
2LAR0.0-0.0+0.0
1DEN0.0-0.0+0.0
  • 4-game streak of missing projections
  • Trending up: 7.2 avg (last 3) vs 5.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.99)
  • Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Omarion Hampton (LAC vs KC)

Projections: ESPN 11.7 | LLM 11.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 47% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 10% boom, 51% bust (this week). Tough KC defense rank 7 vs RB, game total 41.5. XGB bust signal concerning but MC supports MODERATE. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 11.0 pts (within 6-18 range).

Context: O/U: 41.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 51% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14PHI12.18.014.7+2.6
13LV0.00.00.0+0.0
12BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
11JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
10PIT0.0-0.0+0.0
9TEN0.0-0.0+0.0
8MIN0.0-0.0+0.0
7IND0.0-0.0+0.0
6MIA0.0-0.0+0.0
5WSH18.6-13.0-5.6
4NYG16.7-27.5+10.8
3DEN12.2-24.9+12.7
2LV15.7-3.5-12.2
1KC14.7-8.1-6.6
  • Trending up: 4.9 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.49)
  • Season high: 27.5 pts in Week 4

Devin Singletary (NYG vs WSH)

Projections: ESPN 10.8 | LLM 9.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 58% BUST (historical). XGB: 14% boom, 54% bust (this week). WSH defense rank 27 vs RB - soft matchup! ECR RB33. Historical bust pattern but matchup is very favorable. Mode: MODERATE (matchup override). Projection: 9.0 pts (within 4-16 range).

Context: O/U: 46.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 58% | MODERATE: 22% | BOOM: 20%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 54% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14BYE0.00.00.0+0.0
13NE6.3-19.2+12.9
12DET9.9-4.7-5.2
11GB9.6-17.7+8.1
10CHI9.7-10.3+0.6
9SF5.5-7.1+1.6
8PHI1.2-3.8+2.6
7DEN0.8-0.2-0.6
6PHI1.0-1.0+0.0
5NO6.0-3.4-2.6
4LAC7.4-2.8-4.6
3KC1.1-1.1+0.0
2DAL3.2-1.0-2.2
1WSH3.5-0.9-2.6
  • Averaging 5.2 pts vs 4.6 projected (+13%)
  • Trending down: 8.0 avg (last 3) vs 11.7 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.20)
  • Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 13

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA vs IND)

Projections: ESPN 20.6 | LLM 22.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 41% MODERATE, 29% BOOM (historical). XGB: 11% boom, 23% bust (this week). ECR #1 WR! IND defense rank 25 (soft). Prop line 96.5 rec yards. Elite opportunity but XGB tempers boom expectations. Mode: MODERATE (upper). Projection: 22.0 pts (within 13-25 range).

Context: O/U: 42.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 30% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 29%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 23% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14ATL20.922.028.1+7.2
13MIN21.924.04.3-17.6
12TEN21.3-37.1+15.8
11LAR23.0-20.6-2.4
10ARI22.0-20.3-1.7
9WSH24.5-22.0-2.5
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7HOU20.0-26.3+6.3
6JAX17.9-30.2+12.3
5TB15.9-27.2+11.3
4ARI16.4-13.0-3.4
3NO15.5-20.6+5.1
2PIT14.4-18.3+3.9
1SF14.7-19.4+4.7
  • Averaging 20.5 pts vs 17.8 projected (+16%)
  • Season high: 37.1 pts in Week 12

Tetairoa McMillan (CAR vs NO)

Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 14.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 50% BUST, 34% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 21% boom, 22% bust (this week). NO defense rank 28 vs WR - elite soft matchup. ECR WR14. Rookie inconsistency but XGB balanced and matchup is premium. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 14.0 pts (within 8-20 range).

Context: O/U: 40.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 16%

XGB (This Week): Boom 21% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14BYE0.00.00.0+0.0
13LAR13.213.011.3-1.9
12SF16.3-11.5-4.8
11ATL13.5-33.0+19.5
10NO12.2-11.0-1.2
9GB12.9-8.6-4.3
8BUF13.4-16.9+3.5
7NYJ12.5-6.3-6.2
6DAL14.6-17.9+3.3
5MIA14.2-13.3-0.9
4NE14.2-10.2-4.0
3ATL13.2-7.8-5.4
2ARI13.5-16.0+2.5
1JAX13.9-11.8-2.1
  • Trending down: 7.6 avg (last 3) vs 17.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.60)
  • Season high: 33.0 pts in Week 11

Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI vs HOU)

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (BUST)

Reasoning: OUT - Confirmed injury. ESPN projection 0.0. Mode: BUST. Projection: 0.0 pts.

Context: O/U: 42.5

MC (Historical): OUT: 100%

XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 19% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14LAR0.00.00.0+0.0
13TB13.714.012.9-0.8
12JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
11SF0.0-0.0+0.0
10SEA13.3-14.3+1.0
9DAL13.3-22.6+9.3
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7GB12.5-7.8-4.7
6IND11.9-5.2-6.7
5TEN12.8-13.8+1.0
4SEA11.3-18.6+7.3
3SF12.7-7.4-5.3
2CAR14.0-4.7-9.3
1NO13.9-18.1+4.2
  • Trending down: 4.3 avg (last 3) vs 12.3 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.87)
  • Season high: 22.6 pts in Week 9

Rashee Rice (KC vs LAC)

Projections: ESPN 17.2 | LLM 17.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 43% BOOM (historical). XGB: 25% boom, 32% bust (this week). LAC has #1 WR defense - toughest matchup. ECR WR8. Prop line 68.5 rec yards. Historical boom pattern but elite defense caps upside. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 17.0 pts (within 10-22 range).

Context: O/U: 41.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 26% | BOOM: 43%

XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 32% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14HOU17.117.07.4-9.7
13DAL18.118.429.4+11.3
12IND17.6-24.1+6.5
11DEN16.4-9.8-6.6
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BUF18.4-18.6+0.2
8WSH17.2-25.5+8.2
7LV13.7-23.2+9.5
6DET0.0-0.0+0.0
5JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
4BAL0.0-0.0+0.0
3NYG0.0-0.0+0.0
2PHI0.0-0.0+0.0
1LAC0.0-0.0+0.0
  • Averaging 9.9 pts vs 8.5 projected (+16%)
  • Trending up: 20.3 avg (last 3) vs 9.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.18)
  • Season high: 29.4 pts in Week 13

Jameson Williams (DET vs LAR)

Projections: ESPN 13.9 | LLM 16.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 47% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 12% boom, 48% bust (this week). ECR WR10. LAR defense rank 18 vs WR, high game total 54.5. DET offense should score, but XGB bust signal is concerning. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 16.0 pts (within 10-22 range).

Context: O/U: 54.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 30% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 24%

XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 48% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14DAL13.817.317.3+3.5
13GB11.815.126.9+15.1
12NYG12.9-0.0-12.9
11PHI12.6-19.7+7.1
10WSH12.1-23.9+11.8
9MIN11.0-16.6+5.6
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7TB13.2-0.0-13.2
6KC10.7-18.6+7.9
5CIN11.8-2.0-9.8
4CLE10.7-5.7-5.0
3BAL12.9-6.3-6.6
2CHI13.0-18.8+5.8
1GB12.9-6.6-6.3
  • Trending down: 14.7 avg (last 3) vs 20.1 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.83)
  • Season high: 26.9 pts in Week 13

Luther Burden III (CHI vs CLE)

Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 8.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 57% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 14% boom, 44% bust. Rookie WR in CHI offense. CLE defense rank 8 vs WR. Limited upside. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 8.0 pts.

Context: O/U: 38.5ˢ | ECR: 35ˢ

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 57% | BOOM: 12%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 44% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14GB10.38.011.0+0.7
13PHI8.3-7.6-0.7
12PIT7.6-9.1+1.5
11MIN6.2-5.7-0.5
10NYG3.4-8.1+4.7
9CIN0.0-0.0+0.0
8BAL4.8-0.9-3.9
7NO4.9-3.1-1.8
6WSH4.8-9.1+4.3
5BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
4LV5.8-1.6-4.2
3DAL2.7-19.8+17.1
2DET2.7-1.5-1.2
1MIN3.2-0.7-2.5
  • Averaging 5.6 pts vs 4.6 projected (+21%)
  • Trending up: 9.2 avg (last 3) vs 4.6 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.01)
  • Season high: 19.8 pts in Week 3

Juwan Johnson (NO vs CAR)

Projections: ESPN 9.7 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 42% MODERATE, 32% BOOM (historical). XGB: 15% boom, 60% bust (this week). CAR defense rank 23 vs TE (soft). Low game total 40.5. High bust probability but soft matchup. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 10.0 pts (within 5-14 range).

Context: O/U: 40.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 32%

XGB (This Week): Boom 15% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14TB9.710.07.8-1.9
13MIA8.711.08.9+0.2
12ATL9.3-10.6+1.3
11BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
10CAR8.9-19.2+10.2
9LAR8.3-12.1+3.8
8TB9.6-10.3+0.7
7CHI7.5-12.9+5.4
6NE7.9-1.5-6.4
5NYG7.9-3.7-4.2
4BUF11.1-5.8-5.3
3SEA10.6-11.1+0.5
2SF9.1-15.9+6.8
1ARI7.3-15.6+8.3
  • Averaging 9.7 pts vs 8.3 projected (+17%)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.57)
  • Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 10

Hunter Henry (NE vs BUF)

Projections: ESPN 10.3 | LLM 7.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 42% BUST, 46% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 8% boom, 60% bust (this week). BUF has #1 TE defense! Only 3.6 fpts/game allowed. Game total 49.5 irrelevant. XGB strongly signals BUST - trust it vs elite defense. Mode: BUST. Projection: 7.0 pts (within 2-8 range).

Context: O/U: 49.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 42% | MODERATE: 46% | BOOM: 13%

XGB (This Week): Boom 8% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14BYE0.00.00.0+0.0
13NYG11.2-11.3+0.1
12CIN11.4-24.5+13.1
11NYJ10.0-8.5-1.5
10TB10.7-1.9-8.8
9ATL9.1-9.1-0.0
8CLE9.4-7.7-1.7
7TEN9.3-7.3-2.0
6NO10.3-5.7-4.6
5BUF11.1-6.6-4.5
4CAR11.2-11.9+0.7
3PIT9.1-29.0+19.9
2MIA9.7-1.9-7.8
1LV8.8-10.6+1.8
  • Trending up: 11.9 avg (last 3) vs 6.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.83)
  • Season high: 29.0 pts in Week 3

Jordan Love (QB) - GB vs DEN

Projections: ESPN 14.8 | LLM 17.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 49% | BOOM: 23%

XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 21%

Notes: MC: 49% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 27% boom, 21% bust (this week). DEN defense rank 4 vs QB - tough matchup. Game total 42.5. Balanced XGB signals despite tough defense. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 17.0 pts (within 9-24 range).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14CHI17.618.019.3+1.6
13DET15.718.225.8+10.0
12MIN17.4-7.1-10.4
11NYG16.3-17.7+1.3
10PHI17.0-7.8-9.1
9CAR18.1-9.0-9.1
8PIT17.1-28.3+11.2
7ARI17.4-13.4-4.0
6CIN19.3-15.0-4.4
5BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
4DAL18.6-26.3+7.7
3CLE16.0-11.1-4.9
2WSH17.6-20.9+3.3
1DET14.9-15.9+1.0
  • Trending up: 17.4 avg (last 3) vs 11.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.53)
  • Season high: 28.3 pts in Week 8

Tetairoa McMillan (WR) - CAR vs NO

Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 14.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 16%

XGB (This Week): Boom 21% | Bust 22%

Notes: MC: 50% BUST, 34% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 21% boom, 22% bust (this week). NO defense rank 28 vs WR - elite soft matchup. ECR WR14. Rookie inconsistency but XGB balanced and matchup is premium. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 14.0 pts (within 8-20 range).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14BYE0.00.00.0+0.0
13LAR13.213.011.3-1.9
12SF16.3-11.5-4.8
11ATL13.5-33.0+19.5
10NO12.2-11.0-1.2
9GB12.9-8.6-4.3
8BUF13.4-16.9+3.5
7NYJ12.5-6.3-6.2
6DAL14.6-17.9+3.3
5MIA14.2-13.3-0.9
4NE14.2-10.2-4.0
3ATL13.2-7.8-5.4
2ARI13.5-16.0+2.5
1JAX13.9-11.8-2.1
  • Trending down: 7.6 avg (last 3) vs 17.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.60)
  • Season high: 33.0 pts in Week 11

Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR) - ARI vs HOU

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A

MC (Historical): OUT: 100%

XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 19%

Notes: OUT - Confirmed injury. ESPN projection 0.0. Mode: BUST. Projection: 0.0 pts.

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14LAR0.00.00.0+0.0
13TB13.714.012.9-0.8
12JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
11SF0.0-0.0+0.0
10SEA13.3-14.3+1.0
9DAL13.3-22.6+9.3
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7GB12.5-7.8-4.7
6IND11.9-5.2-6.7
5TEN12.8-13.8+1.0
4SEA11.3-18.6+7.3
3SF12.7-7.4-5.3
2CAR14.0-4.7-9.3
1NO13.9-18.1+4.2
  • Trending down: 4.3 avg (last 3) vs 12.3 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.87)
  • Season high: 22.6 pts in Week 9

Tyjae Spears (RB) - TEN vs SF

Projections: ESPN 10.1 | LLM 8.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 18% | MODERATE: 67% | BOOM: 15%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 43%

Notes: MC: 67% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 13% boom, 43% bust (this week). SF defense rank 11 vs RB. Game total 44.5 but TEN big underdog. Limited role behind Henry. XGB bust concerns. Mode: MODERATE (low). Projection: 8.0 pts (within 3-15 range).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14CLE8.68.06.7-1.9
13JAX9.98.08.4-1.5
12SEA9.6-6.5-3.1
11HOU9.0-8.4-0.6
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9LAC9.5-9.2-0.3
8IND9.5-17.2+7.7
7NE7.8-7.0-0.8
6LV5.6-9.0+3.4
5ARI5.4-1.4-4.0
4HOU0.0-0.0+0.0
3IND0.0-0.0+0.0
2LAR0.0-0.0+0.0
1DEN0.0-0.0+0.0
  • 4-game streak of missing projections
  • Trending up: 7.2 avg (last 3) vs 5.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.99)
  • Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Jacoby Brissett (QB) - ARI vs HOU

Projections: ESPN 13.9 | LLM 15.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 73%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 37%

Notes: MC: 73% BOOM (historical - small sample). XGB: 14% boom, 37% bust. HOU defense rank 5 vs WR but QB not as affected. Streaming option if needed. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 15.0 pts.

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14LAR15.319.019.0+3.7
13TB17.220.519.6+2.4
12JAX16.7-18.7+1.9
11SF17.9-21.9+3.9
10SEA15.3-19.4+4.2
9DAL19.4-24.8+5.4
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7GB16.6-19.8+3.2
6IND13.4-20.7+7.3
5TEN0.0-0.0+0.0
4SEA0.0-0.0+0.0
3SF0.0-0.0+0.0
2CAR0.0-0.2+0.2
1NO0.1-0.0-0.1
  • 6-game streak of beating projections
  • Averaging 11.7 pts vs 9.4 projected (+24%)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.91)
  • Season high: 24.8 pts in Week 9

Rams D/ST (D/ST) - LAR vs DET

Projections: ESPN 4.2 | LLM 6.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 40% | MODERATE: 38% | BOOM: 22%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 59%

Notes: MC: 40% BUST (historical). XGB: 13% boom, 59% bust (this week). Playing DET - high-powered offense. Game total 54.5 (highest of week). XGB strongly signals BUST. Avoid starting. Mode: BUST. Projection: 6.0 pts (within -2-10 range).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14ARI6.99.06.0-0.9
13CAR7.510.01.0-6.5
12TB5.7-20.0+14.3
11SEA5.4-5.0-0.4
10SF6.4-5.0-1.4
9NO8.2-10.0+1.8
7JAX6.7-9.0+2.3
6BAL6.2-16.0+9.8
5SF7.0--2.0-9.0
4IND5.7-6.0+0.3
3PHI5.2-7.0+1.8
2TEN7.4-9.0+1.6
1HOU5.6-12.0+6.4
  • Averaging 8.0 pts vs 6.4 projected (+24%)
  • Trending up: 9.0 avg (last 3) vs 6.7 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.73)
  • Season high: 20.0 pts in Week 12

Hunter Henry (TE) - NE vs BUF

Projections: ESPN 10.3 | LLM 7.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 42% | MODERATE: 46% | BOOM: 13%

XGB (This Week): Boom 8% | Bust 60%

Notes: MC: 42% BUST, 46% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 8% boom, 60% bust (this week). BUF has #1 TE defense! Only 3.6 fpts/game allowed. Game total 49.5 irrelevant. XGB strongly signals BUST - trust it vs elite defense. Mode: BUST. Projection: 7.0 pts (within 2-8 range).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14BYE0.00.00.0+0.0
13NYG11.2-11.3+0.1
12CIN11.4-24.5+13.1
11NYJ10.0-8.5-1.5
10TB10.7-1.9-8.8
9ATL9.1-9.1-0.0
8CLE9.4-7.7-1.7
7TEN9.3-7.3-2.0
6NO10.3-5.7-4.6
5BUF11.1-6.6-4.5
4CAR11.2-11.9+0.7
3PIT9.1-29.0+19.9
2MIA9.7-1.9-7.8
1LV8.8-10.6+1.8
  • Trending up: 11.9 avg (last 3) vs 6.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.83)
  • Season high: 29.0 pts in Week 3

Devin Singletary (RB) - NYG vs WSH

Projections: ESPN 10.8 | LLM 9.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 58% | MODERATE: 22% | BOOM: 20%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 54%

Notes: MC: 58% BUST (historical). XGB: 14% boom, 54% bust (this week). WSH defense rank 27 vs RB - soft matchup! ECR RB33. Historical bust pattern but matchup is very favorable. Mode: MODERATE (matchup override). Projection: 9.0 pts (within 4-16 range).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14BYE0.00.00.0+0.0
13NE6.3-19.2+12.9
12DET9.9-4.7-5.2
11GB9.6-17.7+8.1
10CHI9.7-10.3+0.6
9SF5.5-7.1+1.6
8PHI1.2-3.8+2.6
7DEN0.8-0.2-0.6
6PHI1.0-1.0+0.0
5NO6.0-3.4-2.6
4LAC7.4-2.8-4.6
3KC1.1-1.1+0.0
2DAL3.2-1.0-2.2
1WSH3.5-0.9-2.6
  • Averaging 5.2 pts vs 4.6 projected (+13%)
  • Trending down: 8.0 avg (last 3) vs 11.7 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.20)
  • Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 13

Luther Burden III (WR) - CHI vs CLE

Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 8.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 57% | BOOM: 12%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 44%

Notes: MC: 57% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 14% boom, 44% bust. Rookie WR in CHI offense. CLE defense rank 8 vs WR. Limited upside. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 8.0 pts.

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14GB10.38.011.0+0.7
13PHI8.3-7.6-0.7
12PIT7.6-9.1+1.5
11MIN6.2-5.7-0.5
10NYG3.4-8.1+4.7
9CIN0.0-0.0+0.0
8BAL4.8-0.9-3.9
7NO4.9-3.1-1.8
6WSH4.8-9.1+4.3
5BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
4LV5.8-1.6-4.2
3DAL2.7-19.8+17.1
2DET2.7-1.5-1.2
1MIN3.2-0.7-2.5
  • Averaging 5.6 pts vs 4.6 projected (+21%)
  • Trending up: 9.2 avg (last 3) vs 4.6 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.01)
  • Season high: 19.8 pts in Week 3

Opponent Starter Analysis

PlayerPosTeamESPNLLMModeBoom%Mod%Bust%Threat
Dalton Schultz TE HOU 8.9 9.0 28% 48% 23% MEDIUM
Justin Jefferson WR MIN 15.7 13.4 18% 60% 22% LOW
Jake Elliott K PHI 8.0 7.9 17% 29% 54% LOW
Caleb Williams QB CHI 16.1 16.9 13% 68% 19% LOW
Saints D/ST D/ST NO 5.9 8.2 11% 28% 61% LOW
Kenneth Gainwell RB PIT 12.6 10.1 10% 40% 51% LOW
Emeka Egbuka WR TB 12.0 12.1 9% 36% 55% LOW
A.J. Brown WR PHI 16.8 15.7 9% 35% 56% LOW
Jonathan Taylor RB IND 17.6 20.4 9% 36% 55% LOW

Opponent Scenario Analysis (MC Historical)

Dalton Schultz: MC (BUST: 43% | MODERATE: 36% | BOOM: 22%) | XGB (Boom 28% | Bust 23%)

Justin Jefferson: MC (BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 6%) | XGB (Boom 18% | Bust 22%)

Jake Elliott: MC (BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 26%) | XGB (Boom 17% | Bust 54%)

Caleb Williams: MC (BUST: 39% | MODERATE: 33% | BOOM: 28%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 19%)

Saints D/ST: MC (BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 21%) | XGB (Boom 11% | Bust 61%)

Kenneth Gainwell: MC (BUST: 39% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 19%) | XGB (Boom 10% | Bust 51%)

Emeka Egbuka: MC (BUST: 46% | MODERATE: 25% | BOOM: 29%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 55%)

A.J. Brown: MC (BUST: 19% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 37%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 56%)

Jonathan Taylor: MC (BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 22% | BOOM: 29%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 55%)

Add/Drop Recommendations with MC Evidence

Season Phase: Playoff Positioning - Hold proven performers, ceiling matters more than this week's matchup

Click player names to view full MC histogram analysis.

Protected Players (8): Jordan Love (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Jacoby Brissett (Elite ceiling (30 pts)), Devin Singletary (Elite ceiling (26 pts)), Tyjae Spears (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Tetairoa McMillan (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Luther Burden III (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Hunter Henry (Elite ceiling (31 pts)), Rams D/ST (Elite ceiling (25 pts))
ADD Chiefs D/ST D/ST,
Boom%43%
Bust%21%
EV7.4
BUST: 27% (-4-8) MODERATE: 47% (1-13) BOOM: 26% (7-22)
Boom%42%
Bust%19%
EV0.0
OUT: 100% (0-0)
ADD J.K. Dobbins RB,
Boom%42%
Bust%20%
EV12.1
BUST: 47% (4-11) MODERATE: 40% (8-20) BOOM: 13% (14-28)
ADD Garrett Wilson WR,
Boom%36%
Bust%35%
EV14.8
BUST: 38% (4-11) MODERATE: 39% (10-22) BOOM: 23% (17-32)
Boom%42%
Bust%19%
EV0.0
OUT: 100% (0-0)
ADD Evan Engram TE,
Boom%34%
Bust%14%
EV8.3
BUST: 69% (3-9) MODERATE: 29% (9-18) BOOM: 2% (20-32)
ADD Isiah Pacheco RB,
Boom%32%
Bust%16%
EV8.0
BUST: 68% (1-9) MODERATE: 29% (7-19) BOOM: 3% (17-32)

Note: Protection thresholds adjust by season phase. Currently in Playoff Positioning mode. Players with high ceiling or returning from injury before playoffs are protected from drop suggestions.

Top Free Agents by Boom Potential

PlayerPosTeamESPNBoom%Bust%Own%
Chiefs D/ST D/ST 7.4 43% 21% 0.0%
J.K. Dobbins RB 12.1 42% 20% 0.0%
Garrett Wilson WR 14.8 36% 35% 0.0%
Evan Engram TE 8.3 34% 14% 0.0%
Isiah Pacheco RB 8.0 32% 16% 0.0%
Trey Benson RB 8.8 29% 26% 0.0%
Michael Badgley K 8.6 27% 54% 0.0%
Chuba Hubbard RB 11.5 21% 31% 0.0%
Ka'imi Fairbairn K 10.3 20% 22% 0.0%
Harold Fannin Jr. TE 10.5 20% 9% 0.0%
Kyler Murray QB 16.8 20% 35% 0.0%
Aaron Rodgers QB 14.6 19% 56% 0.0%
Matthew Golden WR 9.0 18% 48% 0.0%
Patriots D/ST D/ST 8.8 18% 47% 0.0%
Cooper Kupp WR 10.0 16% 58% 0.0%

QB Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Kyler Murray 16.8 BUST:17%, MODERATE:58%, BOOM:25% 20% 35%
Aaron Rodgers 14.6 BUST:50%, MODERATE:28%, BOOM:22% 19% 56%
Justin Fields 16.4 BUST:40%, MODERATE:31%, BOOM:30% 15% 43%

RB Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
J.K. Dobbins 12.1 BUST:47%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:13% 42% 20%
Isiah Pacheco 8.0 BUST:68%, MODERATE:29%, BOOM:3% 32% 16%
Trey Benson 8.8 BUST:33%, MODERATE:43%, BOOM:24% 29% 26%
Chuba Hubbard 11.5 BUST:25%, MODERATE:45%, BOOM:29% 21% 31%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt 8.9 BUST:54%, MODERATE:32%, BOOM:14% 10% 68%

WR Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Garrett Wilson 14.8 BUST:38%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:23% 36% 35%
Matthew Golden 9.0 BUST:41%, MODERATE:28%, BOOM:31% 18% 48%
Cooper Kupp 10.0 BUST:50%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:12% 16% 58%
Rashid Shaheed 10.1 BUST:30%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:32% 12% 66%
Keenan Allen 11.9 BUST:67%, MODERATE:24%, BOOM:10% 11% 66%

TE Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Evan Engram 8.3 BUST:69%, MODERATE:29%, BOOM:2% 34% 14%
Harold Fannin Jr. 10.5 BUST:40%, MODERATE:44%, BOOM:16% 20% 9%
Colston Loveland 9.8 BUST:42%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:16% 10% 60%

Streaming Options

K Streamers

PlayerTeamESPNBoom%Bust%
Michael Badgley 8.6 27% 54%
Ka'imi Fairbairn 10.3 20% 22%
Evan McPherson 9.5 14% 68%

D/ST Streamers

PlayerTeamESPNBoom%Bust%
Chiefs D/ST 7.4 43% 21%
Patriots D/ST 8.8 18% 47%
Dolphins D/ST 8.7 14% 63%

Monte Carlo Projection Report

Week 15 | Generated: 2025-12-12 18:19

Matchup Summary

55.0%

Win Probability

+4.3
Expected Margin
124.0
My Team (LLM Proj)
95.0
Opponent (Proj)
32.4
Margin Std Dev
122.0
My Team (MC EV)

Margin Distribution (80% Range)

Floor: -33.7 pts | Median: +8.6 pts | Ceiling: +48.6 pts

Margin Distribution

My Team

Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)

Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)

Starters

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Marcus Mariota QB MED 19.0 5.2-26.9 ↑15+: 57% | ↓5-: 10% Marcus Mariota
Bucky Irving RB MED 8.1 5.2-24.4 ↑15+: 44% | ↓5-: 10% Bucky Irving
Omarion Hampton RB HIGH 11.0 3.6-24.3 ↑15+: 36% | ↓5-: 17% Omarion Hampton
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR MED 22.0 6.3-30.2 ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 5% Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Rashee Rice WR MED 17.0 6.1-28.0 ↑15+: 57% | ↓5-: 5% Rashee Rice
Jameson Williams WR HIGH 16.0 4.2-25.2 ↑15+: 48% | ↓5-: 14% Jameson Williams
Juwan Johnson TE HIGH 10.0 2.9-16.8 ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 23% Juwan Johnson
Bears D/ST D/ST HIGH 9.0 0.5-16.2 ↑15+: 13% | ↓5-: 38% Bears D/ST
Jason Myers K MED 11.0 5.3-17.1 ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 8% Jason Myers

Bench

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Jordan Love QB MED 17.0 6.4-27.7 ↑15+: 55% | ↓5-: 6% Jordan Love
Tyjae Spears RB HIGH 8.0 2.4-18.8 ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 26% Tyjae Spears
Devin Singletary RB HIGH 9.0 0.7-18.6 ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 51% Devin Singletary
Tetairoa McMillan WR HIGH 14.0 5.4-26.1 ↑15+: 30% | ↓5-: 8% Tetairoa McMillan
Hunter Henry TE HIGH 7.0 3.2-22.1 ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 26% Hunter Henry
Rams D/ST D/ST HIGH 6.0 1.1-18.0 ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 34% Rams D/ST

IR

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR LOW 0.0 0.0-0.0 ↑15+: 0% | ↓5-: 100% Marvin Harrison Jr.

Opponent

Starters

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Caleb Williams QB HIGH 17.0 6.0-30.0 ↑15+: 53% | ↓5-: 7% Caleb Williams
Jonathan Taylor RB HIGH 20.7 8.6-37.6 ↑15+: 52% | ↓5-: 0% Jonathan Taylor
Kenneth Gainwell RB HIGH 10.1 1.8-24.3 ↑15+: 23% | ↓5-: 34% Kenneth Gainwell
Justin Jefferson WR HIGH 13.4 5.6-22.9 ↑15+: 38% | ↓5-: 7% Justin Jefferson
A.J. Brown WR HIGH 15.7 2.7-29.2 ↑15+: 47% | ↓5-: 16% A.J. Brown
Emeka Egbuka WR HIGH 12.2 3.5-24.4 ↑15+: 33% | ↓5-: 22% Emeka Egbuka
Dalton Schultz TE HIGH 9.0 2.8-17.2 ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 30% Dalton Schultz
Saints D/ST D/ST HIGH 8.2 0.3-17.3 ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 36% Saints D/ST
Jake Elliott K HIGH 8.0 2.2-14.7 ↑15+: 9% | ↓5-: 32% Jake Elliott

Bench

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
C.J. Stroud QB HIGH 14.3 5.4-25.1 ↑15+: 41% | ↓5-: 8% C.J. Stroud
Sean Tucker RB HIGH 10.0 1.3-27.4 ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 37% Sean Tucker
Wan'Dale Robinson WR HIGH 12.5 4.8-24.6 ↑15+: 28% | ↓5-: 12% Wan'Dale Robinson
Courtland Sutton WR HIGH 12.9 5.6-21.8 ↑15+: 36% | ↓5-: 6% Courtland Sutton
Jakobi Meyers WR HIGH 12.5 5.3-21.6 ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 8% Jakobi Meyers
Khalil Shakir WR HIGH 10.8 1.8-20.2 ↑15+: 27% | ↓5-: 26% Khalil Shakir
David Njoku TE LOW 0.0 0.0-0.0 ↑15+: 0% | ↓5-: 100% David Njoku

Scenario Details

Player Position BOOM MODERATE BUST EV
Bucky Irving RB 19% @ 24.2 65% @ 14.2 17% @ 5.0 14.5
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR 29% @ 28.6 41% @ 18.7 30% @ 7.6 18.2
Rashee Rice WR 43% @ 24.3 26% @ 16.0 31% @ 7.4 16.9
Omarion Hampton RB 27% @ 22.9 47% @ 11.9 26% @ 4.8 13.0
Jason Myers K 20% @ 16.9 47% @ 11.8 33% @ 6.4 11.0
Juwan Johnson TE 32% @ 15.0 42% @ 9.1 26% @ 3.7 9.6
Jameson Williams WR 24% @ 24.1 47% @ 15.7 30% @ 5.4 14.6
Bears D/ST D/ST 19% @ 15.3 47% @ 8.1 34% @ 2.9 7.7
Marcus Mariota QB 42% @ 22.3 43% @ 14.6 15% @ 4.8 16.4

XGBoost Boom/Bust Predictions

Model input: This week's predicted mode probabilities (LLM uses these to make final decisions)

PlayerPosESPNLLMModeBoom%Mod%Bust%
Jason MyersK8.511.0MODERATE51.6%32.9%15.5%
Marvin Harrison Jr.WR0.00.0BUST42.5%38.0%19.4%
Jordan LoveQB14.817.0MODERATE26.8%51.8%21.4%
Bears D/STD/ST6.69.0MODERATE26.4%44.4%29.2%
Rashee RiceWR17.217.0MODERATE24.8%43.2%32.0%
Tetairoa McMillanWR13.214.0MODERATE20.8%56.9%22.3%
Marcus MariotaQB18.119.0MODERATE17.4%31.7%50.9%
Juwan JohnsonTE9.710.0MODERATE14.9%24.9%60.2%
Luther Burden IIIWR8.18.0MODERATE14.4%41.9%43.7%
Devin SingletaryRB10.89.0MODERATE14.1%32.3%53.5%
Jacoby BrissettQB13.915.0MODERATE13.6%49.0%37.4%
Tyjae SpearsRB10.18.0MODERATE13.4%44.0%42.6%
Rams D/STD/ST4.26.0BUST13.4%27.5%59.1%
Jameson WilliamsWR13.916.0MODERATE12.3%39.4%48.3%
Bucky IrvingRB15.214.5MODERATE10.9%40.4%48.7%
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR20.622.0MODERATE10.9%65.8%23.4%
Omarion HamptonRB11.711.0MODERATE10.4%38.2%51.4%
Hunter HenryTE10.37.0BUST8.5%31.0%60.5%

League Standings

Week 15 standings with live scores included. ESPN updates official totals on Tuesday.

Rank Team Record PF (Total) PA (Total) +/- This Week Streak Playoff %
1 Kitty's Piggy Skins 10-4 1744.9 1548.1 +196.8 0.0 vs 0.0 W3 100.0%
2 4th and pinches 9-5 1653.0 1645.4 +7.6 19.2 vs 0.0 W1 100.0%
3 Valued Customers ← 8-6 1694.7 1456.0 +238.7 8.1 vs 10.4 W4 78.5%
4 Wookie of the Year 8-6 1601.3 1616.8 -15.5 0.0 vs 0.0 W2 58.3%
5 Meat Pistols 8-6 1429.7 1547.0 -117.4 0.0 vs 75.1 L1 20.2%
6 Ryan's Rowdy Team 7-7 1644.8 1620.4 +24.4 0.0 vs 0.0 L2 28.8%
7 Torta Pounders Football Club 7-7 1610.5 1556.6 +53.9 0.0 vs 19.2 L1 14.3%
8 Moms rules 6-8 1536.5 1662.1 -125.6 0.0 vs 0.0 L2 0.0%
9 Chupi and the End Zone Bandits 6-8 1478.5 1545.2 -66.7 0.0 vs 14.0 L4 0.0%
10 Smooth Roosters 6-8 1546.6 1561.6 -15.0 75.1 vs 0.0 W2 0.0%
11 The Warsaw Pact 5-9 1509.1 1646.5 -137.4 14.0 vs 0.0 W1 0.0%
12 Auto DraftKings 4-10 1595.3 1639.3 -44.0 10.4 vs 8.1 L3 0.0%

Week 15 Matchups

Away TeamScoreScoreHome Team
Kitty's Piggy Skins 0.0 @ 0.0 Moms rules
4th and pinches 19.2 @ 0.0 Torta Pounders Football Club
Valued Customers 8.1 @ 10.4 Auto DraftKings
Wookie of the Year 0.0 @ 0.0 Ryan's Rowdy Team
Meat Pistols 0.0 @ 75.1 Smooth Roosters
Chupi and the End Zone Bandits 0.0 @ 14.0 The Warsaw Pact

Season Points Trend

Weekly and cumulative points scored by each team throughout the 2025 season. Your team (Valued Customers) is highlighted in green.

Weekly Points

Weekly Team Points

Cumulative Points

Cumulative Team Points

Week 15 Research Analysis

Key News & Injury Updates (Reddit + Web Sources)

Confirmed OUT: - Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR, ARI) - Ruled out with heel injury. Coach Gannon expects him to return this season but not Week 15. [Reddit: "Marvin Harrison Jr. (heel) ruled out for Week 15"] - Alvin Kamara (RB, NO) - OUT with knee/ankle injury. Impacts Saints offense but Juwan Johnson could see increased targets.

Questionable/Game-Time Decisions: - Josh Jacobs (RB, GB) - Listed as questionable with knee swelling. Monitor before game time.

Cleared to Play: - CeeDee Lamb (WR, DAL) - Cleared concussion protocol, full go. - Riley Leonard (QB, IND) - No injury designation, will start. - Devin Neal (RB, NO) - Practiced in full Friday, off injury report.

Reddit Community Sentiment

High Confidence Starts (per r/fantasyfootball): 1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba - Universally recommended as top WR play. Multiple posts cite elite matchup vs IND. 2. Bears D/ST - Featured in "STACKED League Playoff Preview" as must-start vs CLE. 3. Marcus Mariota - Listed as "Dark Horse League Winner" candidate with rushing upside.

Concerns Raised: 1. Rashee Rice - Despite ranking, LAC's elite WR defense creates risk. 2. Omarion Hampton - Mixed sentiment; tough KC matchup but volume is there. 3. Hunter Henry - Avoid vs BUF's #1 TE defense (consensus sit).

Vegas-Implied Game Scripts

High-Scoring Games (Offense-Friendly): - DET @ LAR: 54.5 total (highest of week) → Jameson Williams benefits - NE @ BUF: 49.5 total → But Henry still sits due to coverage - MIN @ DAL: 48.5 total → Opponent Jefferson benefits

Low-Scoring/Defense-Friendly: - CHI @ CLE: 38.5 total (lowest) → Bears D/ST smash spot - LV @ PHI: 38.5 total → A.J. Brown may have lower volume but quality

Blowout Risk (Lopsided Spreads): - SEA -13.5 vs IND → JSN could rest in 4th quarter if blowout - SF -12.5 vs TEN → Spears game script negative

Matchup Deep Dives

Best Matchups on Roster: 1. JSN vs IND (rank 25 WR defense) - Averaging 21.0 fpts allowed to WRs 2. Bears D/ST vs CLE (rank 29 offense) - Browns turnover-prone 3. Mariota vs NYG (rank 27 RB defense) - Rushing lanes open 4. Juwan Johnson vs CAR (rank 23 TE defense) - Soft coverage

Worst Matchups on Roster: 1. Rashee Rice vs LAC (#1 WR defense) - Only 13.5 fpts/game allowed 2. Hunter Henry vs BUF (#1 TE defense) - 3.6 fpts/game allowed 3. Omarion Hampton vs KC (rank 7 RB defense) - Tough sledding 4. Jordan Love vs DEN (rank 4 QB defense) - Solid pass rush

Waiver Wire Notes

Potential Adds (if roster space): - Devin Neal (NO) - With Kamara OUT, Neal practiced in full - Riley Leonard (IND) - Starting QB, rushing upside in garbage time

Final Confidence Tiers

Locked-In Starters (High Confidence): - Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Bears D/ST, Marcus Mariota, Jason Myers

Solid Starters (Medium-High): - Rashee Rice (talent > matchup), Jameson Williams (game script)

Acceptable Starters (Medium): - Juwan Johnson, Omarion Hampton

Already Played: - Bucky Irving (8.1 pts - underperformed 14.5 projection)

Reddit Insights

Hot Topics

Positive Buzz: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Bears D/ST, Marcus Mariota, Jameson Williams

Negative Buzz: Hunter Henry vs BUF, Tyjae Spears vs SF

Mixed Buzz: Rashee Rice vs LAC, Omarion Hampton vs KC

Sources

Waiver Wire Notes

No waiver recommendations this week.

Injury Concerns

No major injury concerns.

Week 15 Prediction Accuracy (In Progress)

Live data from completed games

11.1
Our Team MAE
25 players
11.5
Opponent MAE
9 players
0.0
Free Agent MAE
3 players
37
Players Tracked
Combined MAE: 10.3
LLM Prediction Scatter ESPN Prediction Scatter

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category Pos Player ESPN LLM Actual Error
Our Team WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba 20.6 22.0 0.0 -22.0
Our Team QB Marcus Mariota 18.1 19.0 0.0 -19.0
Opponent RB Jonathan Taylor 17.6 - 0.0 -17.6
Our Team QB Jordan Love 14.8 17.0 0.0 -17.0
Our Team WR Rashee Rice 17.2 17.0 0.0 -17.0
Our Team WR A.J. Brown 16.8 17.0 0.0 -17.0
Our Team RB Jonathan Taylor 16.7 17.0 0.0 -17.0
Opponent WR A.J. Brown 16.8 - 0.0 -16.8
Opponent QB Caleb Williams 16.1 - 0.0 -16.1
Our Team WR Jameson Williams 13.9 16.0 0.0 -16.0
Our Team WR Justin Jefferson 15.7 16.0 0.0 -16.0
Our Team QB Caleb Williams 16.1 16.0 0.0 -16.0
Opponent WR Justin Jefferson 15.7 - 0.0 -15.7
Our Team WR Tetairoa McMillan 13.2 14.0 0.0 -14.0
Opponent RB Kenneth Gainwell 12.6 - 0.0 -12.6
Our Team RB Omarion Hampton 11.7 11.0 0.0 -11.0
Our Team K Jason Myers 8.5 11.0 0.0 -11.0
Our Team TE Juwan Johnson 9.7 10.0 0.0 -10.0
Our Team RB Devin Singletary 10.8 9.0 0.0 -9.0
Our Team TE Dalton Schultz 8.9 9.0 0.0 -9.0
Our Team D/ST Bears D/ST 6.6 9.0 0.0 -9.0
Opponent TE Dalton Schultz 8.9 - 0.0 -8.9
Opponent K Jake Elliott 8.0 - 0.0 -8.0
Our Team RB Tyjae Spears 10.1 8.0 0.0 -8.0
Our Team WR Luther Burden III 8.1 8.0 0.0 -8.0
Our Team K Jake Elliott 8.0 8.0 0.0 -8.0
Our Team TE Hunter Henry 10.3 7.0 0.0 -7.0
Our Team RB Bucky Irving 15.2 14.5 8.1 -6.4
Our Team D/ST Rams D/ST 4.2 6.0 0.0 -6.0
Opponent D/ST Saints D/ST 5.9 - 0.0 -5.9
Our Team RB Sean Tucker 2.9 3.0 6.7 +3.7
Our Team WR Emeka Egbuka 12.0 12.0 10.4 -1.6
Opponent WR Emeka Egbuka 12.0 - 10.4 -1.6
Our Team WR Marvin Harrison Jr. 0.0 0.0 0.0 +0.0
Free Agent RB Chuba Hubbard 0.0 - 0.0 +0.0
Free Agent TE Harold Fannin Jr. 0.0 - 0.0 +0.0
Free Agent D/ST Steelers D/ST 0.0 - 0.0 +0.0

Week 14 Prediction Accuracy (Final)

Final review from run_013 (2025-12-08)

2.3
Our Team MAE
16 players
7.0
Opponent MAE
10 players
13.6
Free Agent MAE
3 players
29
Players Tracked
Combined MAE: 5.1
LLM Prediction Scatter ESPN Prediction Scatter

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category Pos Player ESPN LLM Actual Error
Free Agent QB Sam Darnold 0.0 - 22.3 +22.3
Free Agent RB Devin Neal 0.0 - 15.4 +15.4
Opponent K Brandon Aubrey 8.9 8.9 24.0 +15.1
Opponent QB Patrick Mahomes 17.9 20.1 6.3 -13.8
Opponent WR DJ Moore 9.1 11.9 0.6 -11.3
Our Team WR Rashee Rice 17.1 17.0 7.4 -9.6
Opponent D/ST Vikings D/ST 5.2 6.3 15.0 +8.7
Opponent RB Nick Chubb 5.3 7.5 0.3 -7.2
Our Team RB Omarion Hampton 12.1 8.0 14.7 +6.7
Our Team WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba 20.9 22.0 28.1 +6.1
Opponent WR Keon Coleman 6.7 9.2 3.6 -5.6
Opponent TE Dalton Kincaid 10.0 9.6 14.1 +4.5
Opponent WR Malik Washington 8.4 8.2 4.0 -4.2
Our Team K Jason Myers 8.3 10.0 14.0 +4.0
Our Team D/ST Rams D/ST 6.8 9.0 6.0 -3.0
Our Team WR Luther Burden III 10.3 8.0 11.0 +3.0
Free Agent D/ST Commanders D/ST 0.0 - 3.0 +3.0
Our Team TE Juwan Johnson 9.7 10.0 7.8 -2.2
Our Team RB Tyjae Spears 8.6 8.0 6.7 -1.3
Our Team QB Jordan Love 17.6 18.0 19.3 +1.3
Our Team RB Bucky Irving 16.4 16.0 16.1 +0.1
Opponent RB Ollie Gordon II 3.2 7.8 7.7 -0.1
Our Team QB Jacoby Brissett 15.3 19.0 19.0 +0.0
Our Team WR Tetairoa McMillan 0.0 0.0 0.0 +0.0
Our Team WR Marvin Harrison Jr. 0.0 0.0 0.0 +0.0
Our Team WR Jameson Williams 13.8 17.3 17.3 +0.0
Our Team TE Hunter Henry 0.0 0.0 0.0 +0.0
Our Team RB Devin Singletary 0.0 0.0 0.0 +0.0
Opponent RB Ray Davis 0.0 0.0 0.0 +0.0

ESPN Projection Accuracy

projection_accuracy_overall.png projection_accuracy_by_position.png projection_error_distribution.png projection_accuracy_trend.png league_team_mae_ranking.png league_bias_heatmap.png league_positional_scatter.png

XGBoost Boom/Bust Calibration

xgb_boom_calibration.png xgb_bust_calibration.png xgb_position_calibration.png xgb_weekly_brier_trend.png xgb_feature_importance.png

LLM vs ESPN Comparison

llm_projection_accuracy_overall.png llm_projection_accuracy_by_position.png llm_projection_error_distribution.png llm_projection_accuracy_trend.png

Data Quality & Discrepancies

This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.

Week 15 Discrepancy Log

No discrepancies detected this week.

Jordan Love (QB)
Jordan Love distribution
LLM 17.0 pts
ESPN 14.8 pts
BUST
28%
MODERATE
49%
BOOM
23%
10th percentile 6.3 pts
Median (50th) 15.8 pts
90th percentile 28.0 pts
MC (Historical)
23% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
27% BOOM
Bucky Irving (RB)
Bucky Irving distribution
LLM 14.5 pts
ESPN 15.2 pts
BUST
17%
MODERATE
65%
BOOM
19%
10th percentile 5.1 pts
Median (50th) 14.1 pts
90th percentile 24.3 pts
MC (Historical)
19% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
11% BOOM
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba distribution
LLM 22.0 pts
ESPN 20.6 pts
BUST
30%
MODERATE
41%
BOOM
29%
10th percentile 6.3 pts
Median (50th) 18.2 pts
90th percentile 30.5 pts
MC (Historical)
29% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
11% BOOM
Tetairoa McMillan (WR)
Tetairoa McMillan distribution
LLM 14.0 pts
ESPN 13.2 pts
BUST
50%
MODERATE
34%
BOOM
16%
10th percentile 5.4 pts
Median (50th) 10.5 pts
90th percentile 25.6 pts
MC (Historical)
16% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
21% BOOM
Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR)
Marvin Harrison Jr. distribution
LLM 0.0 pts
ESPN 0.0 pts
OUT
100%
10th percentile 0.0 pts
Median (50th) 0.0 pts
90th percentile 0.0 pts
MC (Historical)
0% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
42% BOOM
Rashee Rice (WR)
Rashee Rice distribution
LLM 17.0 pts
ESPN 17.2 pts
BUST
31%
MODERATE
26%
BOOM
43%
10th percentile 6.2 pts
Median (50th) 17.0 pts
90th percentile 28.0 pts
MC (Historical)
43% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
25% BOOM
Tyjae Spears (RB)
Tyjae Spears distribution
LLM 8.0 pts
ESPN 10.1 pts
BUST
18%
MODERATE
67%
BOOM
15%
10th percentile 2.3 pts
Median (50th) 8.0 pts
90th percentile 18.7 pts
MC (Historical)
15% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM
Omarion Hampton (RB)
Omarion Hampton distribution
LLM 11.0 pts
ESPN 11.7 pts
BUST
26%
MODERATE
47%
BOOM
27%
10th percentile 3.8 pts
Median (50th) 11.9 pts
90th percentile 24.4 pts
MC (Historical)
27% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
10% BOOM
Jason Myers (K)
Jason Myers distribution
LLM 11.0 pts
ESPN 8.5 pts
BUST
33%
MODERATE
47%
BOOM
20%
10th percentile 5.2 pts
Median (50th) 10.7 pts
90th percentile 17.1 pts
MC (Historical)
20% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
52% BOOM
Juwan Johnson (TE)
Juwan Johnson distribution
LLM 10.0 pts
ESPN 9.7 pts
BUST
26%
MODERATE
42%
BOOM
32%
10th percentile 2.8 pts
Median (50th) 9.0 pts
90th percentile 16.6 pts
MC (Historical)
32% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
15% BOOM
Jameson Williams (WR)
Jameson Williams distribution
LLM 16.0 pts
ESPN 13.9 pts
BUST
30%
MODERATE
47%
BOOM
24%
10th percentile 4.1 pts
Median (50th) 14.6 pts
90th percentile 25.2 pts
MC (Historical)
24% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
12% BOOM
Jacoby Brissett (QB)
013263851Fantasy PointsESPNLLMSeason
LLM 15.0 pts
ESPN 13.9 pts
BUST
25%
MODERATE
2%
BOOM
73%
10th percentile 4.1 pts
Median (50th) 18.2 pts
90th percentile 28.0 pts
MC (Historical)
73% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
14% BOOM
Rams D/ST (D/ST)
Rams D/ST distribution
LLM 6.0 pts
ESPN 4.2 pts
BUST
40%
MODERATE
38%
BOOM
22%
10th percentile 1.2 pts
Median (50th) 7.7 pts
90th percentile 18.4 pts
MC (Historical)
22% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM
Hunter Henry (TE)
Hunter Henry distribution
LLM 7.0 pts
ESPN 10.3 pts
BUST
42%
MODERATE
46%
BOOM
13%
10th percentile 3.1 pts
Median (50th) 8.7 pts
90th percentile 21.6 pts
MC (Historical)
13% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
8% BOOM
Devin Singletary (RB)
Devin Singletary distribution
LLM 9.0 pts
ESPN 10.8 pts
BUST
58%
MODERATE
22%
BOOM
20%
10th percentile 0.7 pts
Median (50th) 4.6 pts
90th percentile 18.4 pts
MC (Historical)
20% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
14% BOOM
Luther Burden III (WR)
09182736Fantasy PointsESPNLLMSeason
LLM 8.0 pts
ESPN 8.1 pts
BUST
31%
MODERATE
57%
BOOM
12%
10th percentile 1.2 pts
Median (50th) 7.5 pts
90th percentile 17.4 pts
MC (Historical)
12% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
14% BOOM
Bears D/ST (D/ST)
Bears D/ST distribution
LLM 9.0 pts
ESPN 6.6 pts
BUST
34%
MODERATE
47%
BOOM
19%
10th percentile 0.4 pts
Median (50th) 6.7 pts
90th percentile 16.3 pts
MC (Historical)
19% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
26% BOOM
Marcus Mariota (QB)
Marcus Mariota distribution
LLM 19.0 pts
ESPN 18.1 pts
BUST
15%
MODERATE
43%
BOOM
42%
10th percentile 5.1 pts
Median (50th) 16.3 pts
90th percentile 26.6 pts
MC (Historical)
42% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
17% BOOM
Justin Jefferson (WR)
Justin Jefferson distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 15.7 pts
BUST
49%
MODERATE
45%
BOOM
6%
10th percentile 5.5 pts
Median (50th) 12.0 pts
90th percentile 22.8 pts
MC (Historical)
6% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
18% BOOM
A.J. Brown (WR)
A.J. Brown distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 16.8 pts
BUST
19%
MODERATE
44%
BOOM
37%
10th percentile 2.6 pts
Median (50th) 14.0 pts
90th percentile 29.1 pts
MC (Historical)
37% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
9% BOOM
Jonathan Taylor (RB)
Jonathan Taylor distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 17.6 pts
BUST
50%
MODERATE
22%
BOOM
29%
10th percentile 8.5 pts
Median (50th) 16.1 pts
90th percentile 37.5 pts
MC (Historical)
29% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
9% BOOM
Kenneth Gainwell (RB)
Kenneth Gainwell distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 12.6 pts
BUST
39%
MODERATE
42%
BOOM
19%
10th percentile 1.8 pts
Median (50th) 7.5 pts
90th percentile 24.1 pts
MC (Historical)
19% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
10% BOOM
Emeka Egbuka (WR)
Emeka Egbuka distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 12.0 pts
BUST
46%
MODERATE
25%
BOOM
29%
10th percentile 3.5 pts
Median (50th) 9.5 pts
90th percentile 24.6 pts
MC (Historical)
29% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
9% BOOM
Caleb Williams (QB)
Caleb Williams distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 16.1 pts
BUST
39%
MODERATE
33%
BOOM
28%
10th percentile 5.9 pts
Median (50th) 15.6 pts
90th percentile 29.9 pts
MC (Historical)
28% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM
Dalton Schultz (TE)
Dalton Schultz distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 8.9 pts
BUST
43%
MODERATE
36%
BOOM
22%
10th percentile 2.7 pts
Median (50th) 8.0 pts
90th percentile 17.1 pts
MC (Historical)
22% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
28% BOOM
Jake Elliott (K)
Jake Elliott distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 8.0 pts
BUST
34%
MODERATE
40%
BOOM
26%
10th percentile 2.2 pts
Median (50th) 7.2 pts
90th percentile 14.8 pts
MC (Historical)
26% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
17% BOOM
Saints D/ST (D/ST)
Saints D/ST distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 5.9 pts
BUST
34%
MODERATE
44%
BOOM
21%
10th percentile 0.3 pts
Median (50th) 7.3 pts
90th percentile 17.1 pts
MC (Historical)
21% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
11% BOOM