55%

Win Probability

+4.3

Projected Margin

CI: [-15.7 to +24.3]

Boom Potential

Jason Myers

Bust Risk

Omarion Hampton (51%), Bucky Irving (49%), Marcus Mariota (51%), Juwan Johnson (60%), Jameson Williams (48%)

Start/Sit Decisions

Locked Slots (players already played):

RB: 🔒 Bucky Irving 8.1 pts

Pending Decisions:

QB: Start Marcus Mariota over Jordan Love Mariota (19.0) over Love (17.0). Better matchup vs NYG (soft defense), rushing upside with 30.5 prop line.

WR1: Start Jaxon Smith-Njigba over Rashee Rice JSN (22.0) over Rice (17.0). ECR #1 WR vs soft IND defense (rank 25). Prop line 96.5 yards.

WR2: Start Rashee Rice over Jameson Williams Rice (17.0) over JWill (16.0). Slight edge despite LAC's #1 WR defense due to KC offense volume.

TE: Start Juwan Johnson over Hunter Henry Johnson (10.0) over Henry (7.0). Henry faces BUF's #1 TE defense (3.6 pts allowed). Johnson vs soft CAR.

FLEX: Start Jameson Williams over Tetairoa McMillan JWill (16.0) over TMac (14.0). High game total (54.5) in DET-LAR, LAR defense rank 18.

K: Start Jason Myers over N/A Only kicker. ECR K2, SEA heavy favorite.

D/ST: Start Bears D/ST over Rams D/ST Bears (9.0) over Rams (6.0). CLE offense rank 29, low game total 38.5. Rams face DET's elite offense.

Recommended Starting Lineup

LLM-selected modes based on XGBoost and Monte Carlo inputs

Slot	Player	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Mode	Confidence
QB	Marcus Mariota	NYG	18.1	19.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM
RB	Bucky Irving	ATL	15.2	14.5	MODERATE	MEDIUM
RB	Omarion Hampton	KC	11.7	11.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM
WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	IND	20.6	22.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM
WR	Rashee Rice	LAC	17.2	17.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM
TE	Juwan Johnson	CAR	9.7	10.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM
WR	Jameson Williams	LAR	13.9	16.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM
K	Jason Myers	IND	8.5	11.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM
D/ST	Bears D/ST	CLE	6.6	9.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM

Waiver Wire

Add/Drop Recommendations

ADD Chiefs D/ST (D/ST) 43% boom / 21% bust

DROP Marvin Harrison Jr. 42% boom / 19% bust

ADD J.K. Dobbins (RB) 42% boom / 20% bust

ADD Garrett Wilson (WR) 36% boom / 35% bust

DROP Marvin Harrison Jr. 42% boom / 19% bust

Protected (Playoff Positioning)

Jordan Love (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Jacoby Brissett (Elite ceiling (30 pts)), Devin Singletary (Elite ceiling (26 pts)), Tyjae Spears (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Tetairoa McMillan (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Luther Burden III (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Hunter Henry (Elite ceiling (31 pts)), Rams D/ST (Elite ceiling (25 pts))

Hold proven performers, ceiling matters more than this week's matchup

See ML Analysis tab for MC histograms. See Waivers tab for full analysis.

Executive Summary

Week 15 projects to 123 points with Bucky Irving already contributing 8.1 from Thursday's game. Marcus Mariota leads at QB with a favorable NYG matchup (ECR QB13), while Jaxon Smith-Njigba headlines the receivers as the consensus #1 WR against Indianapolis' soft pass defense (rank 25). The FLEX decision goes to Jameson Williams over Tetairoa McMillan, capitalizing on the DET-LAR shootout (54.5 game total). Key concerns include Rashee Rice facing LAC's elite #1 WR defense and Hunter Henry benched against Buffalo's league-best TE coverage.

Key Insights

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is ECR #1 WR with 96.5-yard receiving prop vs IND's 25th-ranked WR defense
Bears D/ST in smash spot: CLE offense ranks 29th, low 38.5 game total, CHI -7.5 favorites
Hunter Henry sits vs BUF's #1 TE defense (allows only 3.6 fpts/game) - Juwan Johnson starts
Marcus Mariota has rushing upside (30.5 prop line) vs soft NYG defense in 46.5-total game
Bucky Irving locked with 8.1 pts from Thursday - below 14.5 pre-game projection
Rashee Rice faces toughest matchup: LAC allows fewest WR fantasy points in NFL (13.5/game)
DET-LAR has highest game total of week (54.5) - Williams benefits as WR in that offense
Tetairoa McMillan (ECR WR14) sits with favorable NO matchup (28th vs WR) in favor of Williams

Matchup Status (Week 15)

8.1 - 10.4 vs Auto DraftKings

Games Completed (1)

Player	Pos	Slot	Actual	ESPN	LLM	vs LLM
Bucky Irving	RB	RB	✓ 8.1	15.2	14.5	-6.4

Games Pending (15)

Player	Pos	Slot	ESPN	LLM
Marcus Mariota	QB	QB	18.1	19.0
Omarion Hampton	RB	RB	11.7	11.0
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	WR	20.6	22.0
Rashee Rice	WR	WR	17.2	17.0
Juwan Johnson	TE	TE	9.7	10.0
Jameson Williams	WR	RB/WR/TE	13.9	16.0
Jason Myers	K	K	8.5	11.0
Bears D/ST	D/ST	D/ST	6.6	9.0
Devin Singletary (bench)	RB	BE	10.8	9.0
Hunter Henry (bench)	TE	BE	10.3	7.0
Jordan Love (bench)	QB	BE	14.8	17.0
Rams D/ST (bench)	D/ST	BE	4.2	6.0
Tetairoa McMillan (bench)	WR	BE	13.2	14.0
Tyjae Spears (bench)	RB	BE	10.1	8.0
Marvin Harrison Jr. (bench)	WR	IR	0.0	---

8.1 Actual

124.0 LLM Total

114.4 ESPN Total

Opponent: Auto DraftKings

Opponent Games Completed (2)

Player	Pos	Slot	Actual	ESPN	LLM	vs ESPN
Emeka Egbuka	WR	RB/WR/TE	✓ 10.4	12.0	---	-1.6
Sean Tucker (bench)	RB	BE	✓ 6.7	2.9	---	+3.8

Opponent Games Pending (14)

Player	Pos	Slot	ESPN	LLM
Caleb Williams	QB	QB	16.1	---
Jonathan Taylor	RB	RB	17.6	---
Kenneth Gainwell	RB	RB	12.6	---
A.J. Brown	WR	WR	16.8	---
Justin Jefferson	WR	WR	15.7	---
Dalton Schultz	TE	TE	8.9	---
Jake Elliott	K	K	8.0	---
Saints D/ST	D/ST	D/ST	5.9	---
C.J. Stroud (bench)	QB	BE	17.3	---
Courtland Sutton (bench)	WR	BE	13.1	---
David Njoku (bench)	TE	BE	0.0	---
Jakobi Meyers (bench)	WR	BE	11.7	---
Khalil Shakir (bench)	WR	BE	10.5	---
Wan'Dale Robinson (bench)	WR	BE	14.7	---

10.4 Opp Actual

95.0 Opp LLM Total

111.9 Opp ESPN Total

Projected Margin: +29.0 pts

Jordan Love (GB vs DEN)

Projections: ESPN 14.8 | LLM 17.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 49% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 27% boom, 21% bust (this week). DEN defense rank 4 vs QB - tough matchup. Game total 42.5. Balanced XGB signals despite tough defense. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 17.0 pts (within 9-24 range).

Context: O/U: 42.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 49% | BOOM: 23%

XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 21% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	CHI	17.6	18.0	19.3	+1.6
13	DET	15.7	18.2	25.8	+10.0
12	MIN	17.4	-	7.1	-10.4
11	NYG	16.3	-	17.7	+1.3
10	PHI	17.0	-	7.8	-9.1
9	CAR	18.1	-	9.0	-9.1
8	PIT	17.1	-	28.3	+11.2
7	ARI	17.4	-	13.4	-4.0
6	CIN	19.3	-	15.0	-4.4
5	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	DAL	18.6	-	26.3	+7.7
3	CLE	16.0	-	11.1	-4.9
2	WSH	17.6	-	20.9	+3.3
1	DET	14.9	-	15.9	+1.0

Trending up: 17.4 avg (last 3) vs 11.5 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.53)
Season high: 28.3 pts in Week 8

Jacoby Brissett (ARI vs HOU)

Projections: ESPN 13.9 | LLM 15.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 73% BOOM (historical - small sample). XGB: 14% boom, 37% bust. HOU defense rank 5 vs WR but QB not as affected. Streaming option if needed. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 15.0 pts.

Context: O/U: 42.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 73%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 37% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	LAR	15.3	19.0	19.0	+3.7
13	TB	17.2	20.5	19.6	+2.4
12	JAX	16.7	-	18.7	+1.9
11	SF	17.9	-	21.9	+3.9
10	SEA	15.3	-	19.4	+4.2
9	DAL	19.4	-	24.8	+5.4
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	GB	16.6	-	19.8	+3.2
6	IND	13.4	-	20.7	+7.3
5	TEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	SEA	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	SF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	CAR	0.0	-	0.2	+0.2
1	NO	0.1	-	0.0	-0.1

6-game streak of beating projections
Averaging 11.7 pts vs 9.4 projected (+24%)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.91)
Season high: 24.8 pts in Week 9

Marcus Mariota (WSH vs NYG)

Projections: ESPN 18.1 | LLM 19.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 42% BOOM (historical). XGB: 17% boom, 51% bust (this week). ECR QB13 vs soft NYG defense. Game total 46.5 suggests scoring. Mariota has rushing upside (30.5 rushing prop). Despite XGB bust concern, favorable matchup supports MODERATE mode. Projection: 19.0 pts (within 7-22 range).

Context: O/U: 46.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 15% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 42%

XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 51% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	BYE	0.0	-	-2.1	-2.1
13	BYE	14.8	-	23.3	+8.4
12	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	BYE	18.2	-	15.4	-2.8
10	BYE	16.3	-	18.7	+2.4
9	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	BYE	16.9	-	11.3	-5.6
7	BYE	0.0	-	3.9	+3.9
6	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	ATL	0.0	-	16.2	+16.2
3	BYE	17.0	-	20.3	+3.2
2	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
1	BYE	0.2	-	0.0	-0.2

Averaging 7.6 pts vs 6.0 projected (+28%)
Trending down: 7.1 avg (last 3) vs 11.4 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.22)
Season high: 23.3 pts in Week 13

Bucky Irving (TB vs ATL)

Projections: ESPN 15.2 | LLM 14.5 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 65% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 11% boom, 49% bust (this week). ATL defense rank 19 vs RB, game total 44.5. Pre-game mode: MODERATE. Pre-game projection: 14.5 pts (within 8-20 range). ACTUAL: 8.1 pts (Thursday night game).

Context: O/U: 44.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 17% | MODERATE: 65% | BOOM: 19%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 49% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	NO	16.4	16.0	16.1	-0.3
13	ARI	11.8	12.0	16.1	+4.3
12	LAR	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	BUF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	NE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	NO	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	DET	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
6	SF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	SEA	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	PHI	17.5	-	25.5	+8.0
3	NYJ	17.9	-	13.9	-4.0
2	HOU	15.9	-	18.1	+2.2
1	ATL	17.3	-	14.5	-2.8

Trending up: 10.7 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.25)
Season high: 25.5 pts in Week 4

Tyjae Spears (TEN vs SF)

Projections: ESPN 10.1 | LLM 8.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 67% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 13% boom, 43% bust (this week). SF defense rank 11 vs RB. Game total 44.5 but TEN big underdog. Limited role behind Henry. XGB bust concerns. Mode: MODERATE (low). Projection: 8.0 pts (within 3-15 range).

Context: O/U: 44.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 18% | MODERATE: 67% | BOOM: 15%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 43% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	CLE	8.6	8.0	6.7	-1.9
13	JAX	9.9	8.0	8.4	-1.5
12	SEA	9.6	-	6.5	-3.1
11	HOU	9.0	-	8.4	-0.6
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	LAC	9.5	-	9.2	-0.3
8	IND	9.5	-	17.2	+7.7
7	NE	7.8	-	7.0	-0.8
6	LV	5.6	-	9.0	+3.4
5	ARI	5.4	-	1.4	-4.0
4	HOU	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	IND	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	LAR	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
1	DEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0

4-game streak of missing projections
Trending up: 7.2 avg (last 3) vs 5.9 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.99)
Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Omarion Hampton (LAC vs KC)

Projections: ESPN 11.7 | LLM 11.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 47% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 10% boom, 51% bust (this week). Tough KC defense rank 7 vs RB, game total 41.5. XGB bust signal concerning but MC supports MODERATE. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 11.0 pts (within 6-18 range).

Context: O/U: 41.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 51% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	PHI	12.1	8.0	14.7	+2.6
13	LV	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
12	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	JAX	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	PIT	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	TEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	MIN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	IND	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
6	MIA	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	WSH	18.6	-	13.0	-5.6
4	NYG	16.7	-	27.5	+10.8
3	DEN	12.2	-	24.9	+12.7
2	LV	15.7	-	3.5	-12.2
1	KC	14.7	-	8.1	-6.6

Trending up: 4.9 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.49)
Season high: 27.5 pts in Week 4

Devin Singletary (NYG vs WSH)

Projections: ESPN 10.8 | LLM 9.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 58% BUST (historical). XGB: 14% boom, 54% bust (this week). WSH defense rank 27 vs RB - soft matchup! ECR RB33. Historical bust pattern but matchup is very favorable. Mode: MODERATE (matchup override). Projection: 9.0 pts (within 4-16 range).

Context: O/U: 46.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 58% | MODERATE: 22% | BOOM: 20%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 54% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	NE	6.3	-	19.2	+12.9
12	DET	9.9	-	4.7	-5.2
11	GB	9.6	-	17.7	+8.1
10	CHI	9.7	-	10.3	+0.6
9	SF	5.5	-	7.1	+1.6
8	PHI	1.2	-	3.8	+2.6
7	DEN	0.8	-	0.2	-0.6
6	PHI	1.0	-	1.0	+0.0
5	NO	6.0	-	3.4	-2.6
4	LAC	7.4	-	2.8	-4.6
3	KC	1.1	-	1.1	+0.0
2	DAL	3.2	-	1.0	-2.2
1	WSH	3.5	-	0.9	-2.6

Averaging 5.2 pts vs 4.6 projected (+13%)
Trending down: 8.0 avg (last 3) vs 11.7 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.20)
Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 13

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA vs IND)

Projections: ESPN 20.6 | LLM 22.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 41% MODERATE, 29% BOOM (historical). XGB: 11% boom, 23% bust (this week). ECR #1 WR! IND defense rank 25 (soft). Prop line 96.5 rec yards. Elite opportunity but XGB tempers boom expectations. Mode: MODERATE (upper). Projection: 22.0 pts (within 13-25 range).

Context: O/U: 42.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 30% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 29%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 23% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	ATL	20.9	22.0	28.1	+7.2
13	MIN	21.9	24.0	4.3	-17.6
12	TEN	21.3	-	37.1	+15.8
11	LAR	23.0	-	20.6	-2.4
10	ARI	22.0	-	20.3	-1.7
9	WSH	24.5	-	22.0	-2.5
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	HOU	20.0	-	26.3	+6.3
6	JAX	17.9	-	30.2	+12.3
5	TB	15.9	-	27.2	+11.3
4	ARI	16.4	-	13.0	-3.4
3	NO	15.5	-	20.6	+5.1
2	PIT	14.4	-	18.3	+3.9
1	SF	14.7	-	19.4	+4.7

Averaging 20.5 pts vs 17.8 projected (+16%)
Season high: 37.1 pts in Week 12

Tetairoa McMillan (CAR vs NO)

Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 14.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 50% BUST, 34% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 21% boom, 22% bust (this week). NO defense rank 28 vs WR - elite soft matchup. ECR WR14. Rookie inconsistency but XGB balanced and matchup is premium. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 14.0 pts (within 8-20 range).

Context: O/U: 40.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 16%

XGB (This Week): Boom 21% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	LAR	13.2	13.0	11.3	-1.9
12	SF	16.3	-	11.5	-4.8
11	ATL	13.5	-	33.0	+19.5
10	NO	12.2	-	11.0	-1.2
9	GB	12.9	-	8.6	-4.3
8	BUF	13.4	-	16.9	+3.5
7	NYJ	12.5	-	6.3	-6.2
6	DAL	14.6	-	17.9	+3.3
5	MIA	14.2	-	13.3	-0.9
4	NE	14.2	-	10.2	-4.0
3	ATL	13.2	-	7.8	-5.4
2	ARI	13.5	-	16.0	+2.5
1	JAX	13.9	-	11.8	-2.1

Trending down: 7.6 avg (last 3) vs 17.5 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.60)
Season high: 33.0 pts in Week 11

Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI vs HOU)

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (BUST)

Reasoning: OUT - Confirmed injury. ESPN projection 0.0. Mode: BUST. Projection: 0.0 pts.

Context: O/U: 42.5

MC (Historical): OUT: 100%

XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 19% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	LAR	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	TB	13.7	14.0	12.9	-0.8
12	JAX	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	SF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	SEA	13.3	-	14.3	+1.0
9	DAL	13.3	-	22.6	+9.3
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	GB	12.5	-	7.8	-4.7
6	IND	11.9	-	5.2	-6.7
5	TEN	12.8	-	13.8	+1.0
4	SEA	11.3	-	18.6	+7.3
3	SF	12.7	-	7.4	-5.3
2	CAR	14.0	-	4.7	-9.3
1	NO	13.9	-	18.1	+4.2

Trending down: 4.3 avg (last 3) vs 12.3 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.87)
Season high: 22.6 pts in Week 9

Rashee Rice (KC vs LAC)

Projections: ESPN 17.2 | LLM 17.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 43% BOOM (historical). XGB: 25% boom, 32% bust (this week). LAC has #1 WR defense - toughest matchup. ECR WR8. Prop line 68.5 rec yards. Historical boom pattern but elite defense caps upside. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 17.0 pts (within 10-22 range).

Context: O/U: 41.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 26% | BOOM: 43%

XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 32% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	HOU	17.1	17.0	7.4	-9.7
13	DAL	18.1	18.4	29.4	+11.3
12	IND	17.6	-	24.1	+6.5
11	DEN	16.4	-	9.8	-6.6
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	BUF	18.4	-	18.6	+0.2
8	WSH	17.2	-	25.5	+8.2
7	LV	13.7	-	23.2	+9.5
6	DET	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	JAX	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	BAL	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	NYG	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	PHI	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
1	LAC	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0

Averaging 9.9 pts vs 8.5 projected (+16%)
Trending up: 20.3 avg (last 3) vs 9.5 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.18)
Season high: 29.4 pts in Week 13

Jameson Williams (DET vs LAR)

Projections: ESPN 13.9 | LLM 16.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 47% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 12% boom, 48% bust (this week). ECR WR10. LAR defense rank 18 vs WR, high game total 54.5. DET offense should score, but XGB bust signal is concerning. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 16.0 pts (within 10-22 range).

Context: O/U: 54.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 30% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 24%

XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 48% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	DAL	13.8	17.3	17.3	+3.5
13	GB	11.8	15.1	26.9	+15.1
12	NYG	12.9	-	0.0	-12.9
11	PHI	12.6	-	19.7	+7.1
10	WSH	12.1	-	23.9	+11.8
9	MIN	11.0	-	16.6	+5.6
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	TB	13.2	-	0.0	-13.2
6	KC	10.7	-	18.6	+7.9
5	CIN	11.8	-	2.0	-9.8
4	CLE	10.7	-	5.7	-5.0
3	BAL	12.9	-	6.3	-6.6
2	CHI	13.0	-	18.8	+5.8
1	GB	12.9	-	6.6	-6.3

Trending down: 14.7 avg (last 3) vs 20.1 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.83)
Season high: 26.9 pts in Week 13

Luther Burden III (CHI vs CLE)

Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 8.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 57% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 14% boom, 44% bust. Rookie WR in CHI offense. CLE defense rank 8 vs WR. Limited upside. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 8.0 pts.

Context: O/U: 38.5^ˢ | ECR: 35^ˢ

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 57% | BOOM: 12%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 44% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	GB	10.3	8.0	11.0	+0.7
13	PHI	8.3	-	7.6	-0.7
12	PIT	7.6	-	9.1	+1.5
11	MIN	6.2	-	5.7	-0.5
10	NYG	3.4	-	8.1	+4.7
9	CIN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	BAL	4.8	-	0.9	-3.9
7	NO	4.9	-	3.1	-1.8
6	WSH	4.8	-	9.1	+4.3
5	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	LV	5.8	-	1.6	-4.2
3	DAL	2.7	-	19.8	+17.1
2	DET	2.7	-	1.5	-1.2
1	MIN	3.2	-	0.7	-2.5

Averaging 5.6 pts vs 4.6 projected (+21%)
Trending up: 9.2 avg (last 3) vs 4.6 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.01)
Season high: 19.8 pts in Week 3

Juwan Johnson (NO vs CAR)

Projections: ESPN 9.7 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 42% MODERATE, 32% BOOM (historical). XGB: 15% boom, 60% bust (this week). CAR defense rank 23 vs TE (soft). Low game total 40.5. High bust probability but soft matchup. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 10.0 pts (within 5-14 range).

Context: O/U: 40.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 32%

XGB (This Week): Boom 15% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	TB	9.7	10.0	7.8	-1.9
13	MIA	8.7	11.0	8.9	+0.2
12	ATL	9.3	-	10.6	+1.3
11	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	CAR	8.9	-	19.2	+10.2
9	LAR	8.3	-	12.1	+3.8
8	TB	9.6	-	10.3	+0.7
7	CHI	7.5	-	12.9	+5.4
6	NE	7.9	-	1.5	-6.4
5	NYG	7.9	-	3.7	-4.2
4	BUF	11.1	-	5.8	-5.3
3	SEA	10.6	-	11.1	+0.5
2	SF	9.1	-	15.9	+6.8
1	ARI	7.3	-	15.6	+8.3

Averaging 9.7 pts vs 8.3 projected (+17%)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.57)
Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 10

Hunter Henry (NE vs BUF)

Projections: ESPN 10.3 | LLM 7.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 42% BUST, 46% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 8% boom, 60% bust (this week). BUF has #1 TE defense! Only 3.6 fpts/game allowed. Game total 49.5 irrelevant. XGB strongly signals BUST - trust it vs elite defense. Mode: BUST. Projection: 7.0 pts (within 2-8 range).

Context: O/U: 49.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 42% | MODERATE: 46% | BOOM: 13%

XGB (This Week): Boom 8% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	NYG	11.2	-	11.3	+0.1
12	CIN	11.4	-	24.5	+13.1
11	NYJ	10.0	-	8.5	-1.5
10	TB	10.7	-	1.9	-8.8
9	ATL	9.1	-	9.1	-0.0
8	CLE	9.4	-	7.7	-1.7
7	TEN	9.3	-	7.3	-2.0
6	NO	10.3	-	5.7	-4.6
5	BUF	11.1	-	6.6	-4.5
4	CAR	11.2	-	11.9	+0.7
3	PIT	9.1	-	29.0	+19.9
2	MIA	9.7	-	1.9	-7.8
1	LV	8.8	-	10.6	+1.8

Trending up: 11.9 avg (last 3) vs 6.5 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.83)
Season high: 29.0 pts in Week 3

Jordan Love (QB) - GB vs DEN

Projections: ESPN 14.8 | LLM 17.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 49% | BOOM: 23%

XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 21%

Notes: MC: 49% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 27% boom, 21% bust (this week). DEN defense rank 4 vs QB - tough matchup. Game total 42.5. Balanced XGB signals despite tough defense. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 17.0 pts (within 9-24 range).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	CHI	17.6	18.0	19.3	+1.6
13	DET	15.7	18.2	25.8	+10.0
12	MIN	17.4	-	7.1	-10.4
11	NYG	16.3	-	17.7	+1.3
10	PHI	17.0	-	7.8	-9.1
9	CAR	18.1	-	9.0	-9.1
8	PIT	17.1	-	28.3	+11.2
7	ARI	17.4	-	13.4	-4.0
6	CIN	19.3	-	15.0	-4.4
5	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	DAL	18.6	-	26.3	+7.7
3	CLE	16.0	-	11.1	-4.9
2	WSH	17.6	-	20.9	+3.3
1	DET	14.9	-	15.9	+1.0

Trending up: 17.4 avg (last 3) vs 11.5 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.53)
Season high: 28.3 pts in Week 8

Tetairoa McMillan (WR) - CAR vs NO

Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 14.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 16%

XGB (This Week): Boom 21% | Bust 22%

Notes: MC: 50% BUST, 34% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 21% boom, 22% bust (this week). NO defense rank 28 vs WR - elite soft matchup. ECR WR14. Rookie inconsistency but XGB balanced and matchup is premium. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 14.0 pts (within 8-20 range).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	LAR	13.2	13.0	11.3	-1.9
12	SF	16.3	-	11.5	-4.8
11	ATL	13.5	-	33.0	+19.5
10	NO	12.2	-	11.0	-1.2
9	GB	12.9	-	8.6	-4.3
8	BUF	13.4	-	16.9	+3.5
7	NYJ	12.5	-	6.3	-6.2
6	DAL	14.6	-	17.9	+3.3
5	MIA	14.2	-	13.3	-0.9
4	NE	14.2	-	10.2	-4.0
3	ATL	13.2	-	7.8	-5.4
2	ARI	13.5	-	16.0	+2.5
1	JAX	13.9	-	11.8	-2.1

Trending down: 7.6 avg (last 3) vs 17.5 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.60)
Season high: 33.0 pts in Week 11

Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR) - ARI vs HOU

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A

MC (Historical): OUT: 100%

XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 19%

Notes: OUT - Confirmed injury. ESPN projection 0.0. Mode: BUST. Projection: 0.0 pts.

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	LAR	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	TB	13.7	14.0	12.9	-0.8
12	JAX	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	SF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	SEA	13.3	-	14.3	+1.0
9	DAL	13.3	-	22.6	+9.3
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	GB	12.5	-	7.8	-4.7
6	IND	11.9	-	5.2	-6.7
5	TEN	12.8	-	13.8	+1.0
4	SEA	11.3	-	18.6	+7.3
3	SF	12.7	-	7.4	-5.3
2	CAR	14.0	-	4.7	-9.3
1	NO	13.9	-	18.1	+4.2

Trending down: 4.3 avg (last 3) vs 12.3 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.87)
Season high: 22.6 pts in Week 9

Tyjae Spears (RB) - TEN vs SF

Projections: ESPN 10.1 | LLM 8.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 18% | MODERATE: 67% | BOOM: 15%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 43%

Notes: MC: 67% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 13% boom, 43% bust (this week). SF defense rank 11 vs RB. Game total 44.5 but TEN big underdog. Limited role behind Henry. XGB bust concerns. Mode: MODERATE (low). Projection: 8.0 pts (within 3-15 range).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	CLE	8.6	8.0	6.7	-1.9
13	JAX	9.9	8.0	8.4	-1.5
12	SEA	9.6	-	6.5	-3.1
11	HOU	9.0	-	8.4	-0.6
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	LAC	9.5	-	9.2	-0.3
8	IND	9.5	-	17.2	+7.7
7	NE	7.8	-	7.0	-0.8
6	LV	5.6	-	9.0	+3.4
5	ARI	5.4	-	1.4	-4.0
4	HOU	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	IND	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	LAR	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
1	DEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0

4-game streak of missing projections
Trending up: 7.2 avg (last 3) vs 5.9 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.99)
Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Jacoby Brissett (QB) - ARI vs HOU

Projections: ESPN 13.9 | LLM 15.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 73%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 37%

Notes: MC: 73% BOOM (historical - small sample). XGB: 14% boom, 37% bust. HOU defense rank 5 vs WR but QB not as affected. Streaming option if needed. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 15.0 pts.

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	LAR	15.3	19.0	19.0	+3.7
13	TB	17.2	20.5	19.6	+2.4
12	JAX	16.7	-	18.7	+1.9
11	SF	17.9	-	21.9	+3.9
10	SEA	15.3	-	19.4	+4.2
9	DAL	19.4	-	24.8	+5.4
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	GB	16.6	-	19.8	+3.2
6	IND	13.4	-	20.7	+7.3
5	TEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	SEA	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	SF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	CAR	0.0	-	0.2	+0.2
1	NO	0.1	-	0.0	-0.1

6-game streak of beating projections
Averaging 11.7 pts vs 9.4 projected (+24%)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.91)
Season high: 24.8 pts in Week 9

Rams D/ST (D/ST) - LAR vs DET

Projections: ESPN 4.2 | LLM 6.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 40% | MODERATE: 38% | BOOM: 22%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 59%

Notes: MC: 40% BUST (historical). XGB: 13% boom, 59% bust (this week). Playing DET - high-powered offense. Game total 54.5 (highest of week). XGB strongly signals BUST. Avoid starting. Mode: BUST. Projection: 6.0 pts (within -2-10 range).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	ARI	6.9	9.0	6.0	-0.9
13	CAR	7.5	10.0	1.0	-6.5
12	TB	5.7	-	20.0	+14.3
11	SEA	5.4	-	5.0	-0.4
10	SF	6.4	-	5.0	-1.4
9	NO	8.2	-	10.0	+1.8
7	JAX	6.7	-	9.0	+2.3
6	BAL	6.2	-	16.0	+9.8
5	SF	7.0	-	-2.0	-9.0
4	IND	5.7	-	6.0	+0.3
3	PHI	5.2	-	7.0	+1.8
2	TEN	7.4	-	9.0	+1.6
1	HOU	5.6	-	12.0	+6.4

Averaging 8.0 pts vs 6.4 projected (+24%)
Trending up: 9.0 avg (last 3) vs 6.7 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.73)
Season high: 20.0 pts in Week 12

Hunter Henry (TE) - NE vs BUF

Projections: ESPN 10.3 | LLM 7.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 42% | MODERATE: 46% | BOOM: 13%

XGB (This Week): Boom 8% | Bust 60%

Notes: MC: 42% BUST, 46% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 8% boom, 60% bust (this week). BUF has #1 TE defense! Only 3.6 fpts/game allowed. Game total 49.5 irrelevant. XGB strongly signals BUST - trust it vs elite defense. Mode: BUST. Projection: 7.0 pts (within 2-8 range).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	NYG	11.2	-	11.3	+0.1
12	CIN	11.4	-	24.5	+13.1
11	NYJ	10.0	-	8.5	-1.5
10	TB	10.7	-	1.9	-8.8
9	ATL	9.1	-	9.1	-0.0
8	CLE	9.4	-	7.7	-1.7
7	TEN	9.3	-	7.3	-2.0
6	NO	10.3	-	5.7	-4.6
5	BUF	11.1	-	6.6	-4.5
4	CAR	11.2	-	11.9	+0.7
3	PIT	9.1	-	29.0	+19.9
2	MIA	9.7	-	1.9	-7.8
1	LV	8.8	-	10.6	+1.8

Trending up: 11.9 avg (last 3) vs 6.5 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.83)
Season high: 29.0 pts in Week 3

Devin Singletary (RB) - NYG vs WSH

Projections: ESPN 10.8 | LLM 9.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 58% | MODERATE: 22% | BOOM: 20%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 54%

Notes: MC: 58% BUST (historical). XGB: 14% boom, 54% bust (this week). WSH defense rank 27 vs RB - soft matchup! ECR RB33. Historical bust pattern but matchup is very favorable. Mode: MODERATE (matchup override). Projection: 9.0 pts (within 4-16 range).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	NE	6.3	-	19.2	+12.9
12	DET	9.9	-	4.7	-5.2
11	GB	9.6	-	17.7	+8.1
10	CHI	9.7	-	10.3	+0.6
9	SF	5.5	-	7.1	+1.6
8	PHI	1.2	-	3.8	+2.6
7	DEN	0.8	-	0.2	-0.6
6	PHI	1.0	-	1.0	+0.0
5	NO	6.0	-	3.4	-2.6
4	LAC	7.4	-	2.8	-4.6
3	KC	1.1	-	1.1	+0.0
2	DAL	3.2	-	1.0	-2.2
1	WSH	3.5	-	0.9	-2.6

Averaging 5.2 pts vs 4.6 projected (+13%)
Trending down: 8.0 avg (last 3) vs 11.7 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.20)
Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 13

Luther Burden III (WR) - CHI vs CLE

Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 8.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 57% | BOOM: 12%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 44%

Notes: MC: 57% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 14% boom, 44% bust. Rookie WR in CHI offense. CLE defense rank 8 vs WR. Limited upside. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 8.0 pts.

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	GB	10.3	8.0	11.0	+0.7
13	PHI	8.3	-	7.6	-0.7
12	PIT	7.6	-	9.1	+1.5
11	MIN	6.2	-	5.7	-0.5
10	NYG	3.4	-	8.1	+4.7
9	CIN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	BAL	4.8	-	0.9	-3.9
7	NO	4.9	-	3.1	-1.8
6	WSH	4.8	-	9.1	+4.3
5	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	LV	5.8	-	1.6	-4.2
3	DAL	2.7	-	19.8	+17.1
2	DET	2.7	-	1.5	-1.2
1	MIN	3.2	-	0.7	-2.5

Averaging 5.6 pts vs 4.6 projected (+21%)
Trending up: 9.2 avg (last 3) vs 4.6 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.01)
Season high: 19.8 pts in Week 3

Opponent Starter Analysis

Player	Pos	Team	ESPN	LLM	Boom%	Mod%	Bust%	Threat
Dalton Schultz	TE	HOU	8.9	9.0	28%	48%	23%	MEDIUM
Justin Jefferson	WR	MIN	15.7	13.4	18%	60%	22%	LOW
Jake Elliott	K	PHI	8.0	7.9	17%	29%	54%	LOW
Caleb Williams	QB	CHI	16.1	16.9	13%	68%	19%	LOW
Saints D/ST	D/ST	NO	5.9	8.2	11%	28%	61%	LOW
Kenneth Gainwell	RB	PIT	12.6	10.1	10%	40%	51%	LOW
Emeka Egbuka	WR	TB	12.0	12.1	9%	36%	55%	LOW
A.J. Brown	WR	PHI	16.8	15.7	9%	35%	56%	LOW
Jonathan Taylor	RB	IND	17.6	20.4	9%	36%	55%	LOW

Opponent Scenario Analysis (MC Historical)

Dalton Schultz: MC (BUST: 43% | MODERATE: 36% | BOOM: 22%) | XGB (Boom 28% | Bust 23%)

Justin Jefferson: MC (BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 6%) | XGB (Boom 18% | Bust 22%)

Jake Elliott: MC (BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 26%) | XGB (Boom 17% | Bust 54%)

Caleb Williams: MC (BUST: 39% | MODERATE: 33% | BOOM: 28%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 19%)

Saints D/ST: MC (BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 21%) | XGB (Boom 11% | Bust 61%)

Kenneth Gainwell: MC (BUST: 39% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 19%) | XGB (Boom 10% | Bust 51%)

Emeka Egbuka: MC (BUST: 46% | MODERATE: 25% | BOOM: 29%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 55%)

A.J. Brown: MC (BUST: 19% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 37%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 56%)

Jonathan Taylor: MC (BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 22% | BOOM: 29%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 55%)

Add/Drop Recommendations with MC Evidence

Season Phase: Playoff Positioning - Hold proven performers, ceiling matters more than this week's matchup

Click player names to view full MC histogram analysis.

Protected Players (8): Jordan Love (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Jacoby Brissett (Elite ceiling (30 pts)), Devin Singletary (Elite ceiling (26 pts)), Tyjae Spears (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Tetairoa McMillan (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Luther Burden III (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Hunter Henry (Elite ceiling (31 pts)), Rams D/ST (Elite ceiling (25 pts))

ADD Chiefs D/ST D/ST,

Boom%43%

Bust%21%

EV7.4

BUST: 27% (-4-8) MODERATE: 47% (1-13) BOOM: 26% (7-22)

DROP Marvin Harrison Jr. WR

Boom%42%

Bust%19%

EV0.0

OUT: 100% (0-0)

ADD J.K. Dobbins RB,

Boom%42%

Bust%20%

EV12.1

BUST: 47% (4-11) MODERATE: 40% (8-20) BOOM: 13% (14-28)

ADD Garrett Wilson WR,

Boom%36%

Bust%35%

EV14.8

BUST: 38% (4-11) MODERATE: 39% (10-22) BOOM: 23% (17-32)

DROP Marvin Harrison Jr. WR

Boom%42%

Bust%19%

EV0.0

OUT: 100% (0-0)

ADD Evan Engram TE,

Boom%34%

Bust%14%

EV8.3

BUST: 69% (3-9) MODERATE: 29% (9-18) BOOM: 2% (20-32)

ADD Isiah Pacheco RB,

Boom%32%

Bust%16%

EV8.0

BUST: 68% (1-9) MODERATE: 29% (7-19) BOOM: 3% (17-32)

Note: Protection thresholds adjust by season phase. Currently in Playoff Positioning mode. Players with high ceiling or returning from injury before playoffs are protected from drop suggestions.

Top Free Agents by Boom Potential

Player	Pos	ESPN	Boom%	Bust%	Own%
Chiefs D/ST	D/ST	7.4	43%	21%	0.0%
J.K. Dobbins	RB	12.1	42%	20%	0.0%
Garrett Wilson	WR	14.8	36%	35%	0.0%
Evan Engram	TE	8.3	34%	14%	0.0%
Isiah Pacheco	RB	8.0	32%	16%	0.0%
Trey Benson	RB	8.8	29%	26%	0.0%
Michael Badgley	K	8.6	27%	54%	0.0%
Chuba Hubbard	RB	11.5	21%	31%	0.0%
Ka'imi Fairbairn	K	10.3	20%	22%	0.0%
Harold Fannin Jr.	TE	10.5	20%	9%	0.0%
Kyler Murray	QB	16.8	20%	35%	0.0%
Aaron Rodgers	QB	14.6	19%	56%	0.0%
Matthew Golden	WR	9.0	18%	48%	0.0%
Patriots D/ST	D/ST	8.8	18%	47%	0.0%
Cooper Kupp	WR	10.0	16%	58%	0.0%

QB Free Agents

Player	ESPN	MC Scenarios	Boom%	Bust%
Kyler Murray	16.8	BUST:17%, MODERATE:58%, BOOM:25%	20%	35%
Aaron Rodgers	14.6	BUST:50%, MODERATE:28%, BOOM:22%	19%	56%
Justin Fields	16.4	BUST:40%, MODERATE:31%, BOOM:30%	15%	43%

RB Free Agents

Player	ESPN	MC Scenarios	Boom%	Bust%
J.K. Dobbins	12.1	BUST:47%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:13%	42%	20%
Isiah Pacheco	8.0	BUST:68%, MODERATE:29%, BOOM:3%	32%	16%
Trey Benson	8.8	BUST:33%, MODERATE:43%, BOOM:24%	29%	26%
Chuba Hubbard	11.5	BUST:25%, MODERATE:45%, BOOM:29%	21%	31%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt	8.9	BUST:54%, MODERATE:32%, BOOM:14%	10%	68%

WR Free Agents

Player	ESPN	MC Scenarios	Boom%	Bust%
Garrett Wilson	14.8	BUST:38%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:23%	36%	35%
Matthew Golden	9.0	BUST:41%, MODERATE:28%, BOOM:31%	18%	48%
Cooper Kupp	10.0	BUST:50%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:12%	16%	58%
Rashid Shaheed	10.1	BUST:30%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:32%	12%	66%
Keenan Allen	11.9	BUST:67%, MODERATE:24%, BOOM:10%	11%	66%

TE Free Agents

Player	ESPN	MC Scenarios	Boom%	Bust%
Evan Engram	8.3	BUST:69%, MODERATE:29%, BOOM:2%	34%	14%
Harold Fannin Jr.	10.5	BUST:40%, MODERATE:44%, BOOM:16%	20%	9%
Colston Loveland	9.8	BUST:42%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:16%	10%	60%

Streaming Options

K Streamers

Player	ESPN	Boom%	Bust%
Michael Badgley	8.6	27%	54%
Ka'imi Fairbairn	10.3	20%	22%
Evan McPherson	9.5	14%	68%

D/ST Streamers

Player	ESPN	Boom%	Bust%
Chiefs D/ST	7.4	43%	21%
Patriots D/ST	8.8	18%	47%
Dolphins D/ST	8.7	14%	63%

Monte Carlo Projection Report

Week 15 | Generated: 2025-12-12 18:19

Matchup Summary

55.0%

Win Probability

+4.3

Expected Margin

124.0

My Team (LLM Proj)

95.0

Opponent (Proj)

32.4

Margin Std Dev

122.0

My Team (MC EV)

Margin Distribution (80% Range)

Floor: -33.7 pts | Median: +8.6 pts | Ceiling: +48.6 pts

My Team

Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)

Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)

Starters

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust
Marcus Mariota	QB	MED	19.0	5.2-26.9	↑15+: 57% \| ↓5-: 10%
Bucky Irving	RB	MED	8.1	5.2-24.4	↑15+: 44% \| ↓5-: 10%
Omarion Hampton	RB	HIGH	11.0	3.6-24.3	↑15+: 36% \| ↓5-: 17%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	MED	22.0	6.3-30.2	↑15+: 63% \| ↓5-: 5%
Rashee Rice	WR	MED	17.0	6.1-28.0	↑15+: 57% \| ↓5-: 5%
Jameson Williams	WR	HIGH	16.0	4.2-25.2	↑15+: 48% \| ↓5-: 14%
Juwan Johnson	TE	HIGH	10.0	2.9-16.8	↑15+: 16% \| ↓5-: 23%
Bears D/ST	D/ST	HIGH	9.0	0.5-16.2	↑15+: 13% \| ↓5-: 38%
Jason Myers	K	MED	11.0	5.3-17.1	↑15+: 19% \| ↓5-: 8%

Bench

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust
Jordan Love	QB	MED	17.0	6.4-27.7	↑15+: 55% \| ↓5-: 6%
Tyjae Spears	RB	HIGH	8.0	2.4-18.8	↑15+: 18% \| ↓5-: 26%
Devin Singletary	RB	HIGH	9.0	0.7-18.6	↑15+: 17% \| ↓5-: 51%
Tetairoa McMillan	WR	HIGH	14.0	5.4-26.1	↑15+: 30% \| ↓5-: 8%
Hunter Henry	TE	HIGH	7.0	3.2-22.1	↑15+: 18% \| ↓5-: 26%
Rams D/ST	D/ST	HIGH	6.0	1.1-18.0	↑15+: 18% \| ↓5-: 34%

IR

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust	Distribution
Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	LOW	0.0	0.0-0.0	↑15+: 0% \| ↓5-: 100%

Opponent

Starters

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust
Caleb Williams	QB	HIGH	17.0	6.0-30.0	↑15+: 53% \| ↓5-: 7%
Jonathan Taylor	RB	HIGH	20.7	8.6-37.6	↑15+: 52% \| ↓5-: 0%
Kenneth Gainwell	RB	HIGH	10.1	1.8-24.3	↑15+: 23% \| ↓5-: 34%
Justin Jefferson	WR	HIGH	13.4	5.6-22.9	↑15+: 38% \| ↓5-: 7%
A.J. Brown	WR	HIGH	15.7	2.7-29.2	↑15+: 47% \| ↓5-: 16%
Emeka Egbuka	WR	HIGH	12.2	3.5-24.4	↑15+: 33% \| ↓5-: 22%
Dalton Schultz	TE	HIGH	9.0	2.8-17.2	↑15+: 16% \| ↓5-: 30%
Saints D/ST	D/ST	HIGH	8.2	0.3-17.3	↑15+: 16% \| ↓5-: 36%
Jake Elliott	K	HIGH	8.0	2.2-14.7	↑15+: 9% \| ↓5-: 32%

Bench

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust
C.J. Stroud	QB	HIGH	14.3	5.4-25.1	↑15+: 41% \| ↓5-: 8%
Sean Tucker	RB	HIGH	10.0	1.3-27.4	↑15+: 19% \| ↓5-: 37%
Wan'Dale Robinson	WR	HIGH	12.5	4.8-24.6	↑15+: 28% \| ↓5-: 12%
Courtland Sutton	WR	HIGH	12.9	5.6-21.8	↑15+: 36% \| ↓5-: 6%
Jakobi Meyers	WR	HIGH	12.5	5.3-21.6	↑15+: 32% \| ↓5-: 8%
Khalil Shakir	WR	HIGH	10.8	1.8-20.2	↑15+: 27% \| ↓5-: 26%
David Njoku	TE	LOW	0.0	0.0-0.0	↑15+: 0% \| ↓5-: 100%

Scenario Details

Player	Position	BOOM	MODERATE	BUST	EV
Bucky Irving	RB	19% @ 24.2	65% @ 14.2	17% @ 5.0	14.5
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	29% @ 28.6	41% @ 18.7	30% @ 7.6	18.2
Rashee Rice	WR	43% @ 24.3	26% @ 16.0	31% @ 7.4	16.9
Omarion Hampton	RB	27% @ 22.9	47% @ 11.9	26% @ 4.8	13.0
Jason Myers	K	20% @ 16.9	47% @ 11.8	33% @ 6.4	11.0
Juwan Johnson	TE	32% @ 15.0	42% @ 9.1	26% @ 3.7	9.6
Jameson Williams	WR	24% @ 24.1	47% @ 15.7	30% @ 5.4	14.6
Bears D/ST	D/ST	19% @ 15.3	47% @ 8.1	34% @ 2.9	7.7
Marcus Mariota	QB	42% @ 22.3	43% @ 14.6	15% @ 4.8	16.4

XGBoost Boom/Bust Predictions

Model input: This week's predicted mode probabilities (LLM uses these to make final decisions)

Player	Pos	ESPN	LLM	Mode	Boom%	Mod%	Bust%
Jason Myers	K	8.5	11.0	MODERATE	51.6%	32.9%	15.5%
Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	0.0	0.0	BUST	42.5%	38.0%	19.4%
Jordan Love	QB	14.8	17.0	MODERATE	26.8%	51.8%	21.4%
Bears D/ST	D/ST	6.6	9.0	MODERATE	26.4%	44.4%	29.2%
Rashee Rice	WR	17.2	17.0	MODERATE	24.8%	43.2%	32.0%
Tetairoa McMillan	WR	13.2	14.0	MODERATE	20.8%	56.9%	22.3%
Marcus Mariota	QB	18.1	19.0	MODERATE	17.4%	31.7%	50.9%
Juwan Johnson	TE	9.7	10.0	MODERATE	14.9%	24.9%	60.2%
Luther Burden III	WR	8.1	8.0	MODERATE	14.4%	41.9%	43.7%
Devin Singletary	RB	10.8	9.0	MODERATE	14.1%	32.3%	53.5%
Jacoby Brissett	QB	13.9	15.0	MODERATE	13.6%	49.0%	37.4%
Tyjae Spears	RB	10.1	8.0	MODERATE	13.4%	44.0%	42.6%
Rams D/ST	D/ST	4.2	6.0	BUST	13.4%	27.5%	59.1%
Jameson Williams	WR	13.9	16.0	MODERATE	12.3%	39.4%	48.3%
Bucky Irving	RB	15.2	14.5	MODERATE	10.9%	40.4%	48.7%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	20.6	22.0	MODERATE	10.9%	65.8%	23.4%
Omarion Hampton	RB	11.7	11.0	MODERATE	10.4%	38.2%	51.4%
Hunter Henry	TE	10.3	7.0	BUST	8.5%	31.0%	60.5%

League Standings

Week 15 standings with live scores included. ESPN updates official totals on Tuesday.

Rank	Team	Record	PF (Total)	PA (Total)	+/-	This Week	Streak	Playoff %
1	Kitty's Piggy Skins	10-4	1744.9	1548.1	+196.8	0.0 vs 0.0	W3	100.0%
2	4th and pinches	9-5	1653.0	1645.4	+7.6	19.2 vs 0.0	W1	100.0%
3	Valued Customers ←	8-6	1694.7	1456.0	+238.7	8.1 vs 10.4	W4	78.5%
4	Wookie of the Year	8-6	1601.3	1616.8	-15.5	0.0 vs 0.0	W2	58.3%
5	Meat Pistols	8-6	1429.7	1547.0	-117.4	0.0 vs 75.1	L1	20.2%
6	Ryan's Rowdy Team	7-7	1644.8	1620.4	+24.4	0.0 vs 0.0	L2	28.8%
7	Torta Pounders Football Club	7-7	1610.5	1556.6	+53.9	0.0 vs 19.2	L1	14.3%
8	Moms rules	6-8	1536.5	1662.1	-125.6	0.0 vs 0.0	L2	0.0%
9	Chupi and the End Zone Bandits	6-8	1478.5	1545.2	-66.7	0.0 vs 14.0	L4	0.0%
10	Smooth Roosters	6-8	1546.6	1561.6	-15.0	75.1 vs 0.0	W2	0.0%
11	The Warsaw Pact	5-9	1509.1	1646.5	-137.4	14.0 vs 0.0	W1	0.0%
12	Auto DraftKings	4-10	1595.3	1639.3	-44.0	10.4 vs 8.1	L3	0.0%

Week 15 Matchups

Away Team	Score		Score	Home Team
Kitty's Piggy Skins	0.0	@	0.0	Moms rules
4th and pinches	19.2	@	0.0	Torta Pounders Football Club
Valued Customers	8.1	@	10.4	Auto DraftKings
Wookie of the Year	0.0	@	0.0	Ryan's Rowdy Team
Meat Pistols	0.0	@	75.1	Smooth Roosters
Chupi and the End Zone Bandits	0.0	@	14.0	The Warsaw Pact

Season Points Trend

Weekly and cumulative points scored by each team throughout the 2025 season. Your team (Valued Customers) is highlighted in green.

Weekly Points

Cumulative Points

Week 15 Research Analysis

Key News & Injury Updates (Reddit + Web Sources)

Confirmed OUT: - Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR, ARI) - Ruled out with heel injury. Coach Gannon expects him to return this season but not Week 15. [Reddit: "Marvin Harrison Jr. (heel) ruled out for Week 15"] - Alvin Kamara (RB, NO) - OUT with knee/ankle injury. Impacts Saints offense but Juwan Johnson could see increased targets.

Questionable/Game-Time Decisions: - Josh Jacobs (RB, GB) - Listed as questionable with knee swelling. Monitor before game time.

Cleared to Play: - CeeDee Lamb (WR, DAL) - Cleared concussion protocol, full go. - Riley Leonard (QB, IND) - No injury designation, will start. - Devin Neal (RB, NO) - Practiced in full Friday, off injury report.

Reddit Community Sentiment

High Confidence Starts (per r/fantasyfootball): 1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba - Universally recommended as top WR play. Multiple posts cite elite matchup vs IND. 2. Bears D/ST - Featured in "STACKED League Playoff Preview" as must-start vs CLE. 3. Marcus Mariota - Listed as "Dark Horse League Winner" candidate with rushing upside.

Concerns Raised: 1. Rashee Rice - Despite ranking, LAC's elite WR defense creates risk. 2. Omarion Hampton - Mixed sentiment; tough KC matchup but volume is there. 3. Hunter Henry - Avoid vs BUF's #1 TE defense (consensus sit).

Vegas-Implied Game Scripts

High-Scoring Games (Offense-Friendly): - DET @ LAR: 54.5 total (highest of week) → Jameson Williams benefits - NE @ BUF: 49.5 total → But Henry still sits due to coverage - MIN @ DAL: 48.5 total → Opponent Jefferson benefits

Low-Scoring/Defense-Friendly: - CHI @ CLE: 38.5 total (lowest) → Bears D/ST smash spot - LV @ PHI: 38.5 total → A.J. Brown may have lower volume but quality

Blowout Risk (Lopsided Spreads): - SEA -13.5 vs IND → JSN could rest in 4th quarter if blowout - SF -12.5 vs TEN → Spears game script negative

Matchup Deep Dives

Best Matchups on Roster: 1. JSN vs IND (rank 25 WR defense) - Averaging 21.0 fpts allowed to WRs 2. Bears D/ST vs CLE (rank 29 offense) - Browns turnover-prone 3. Mariota vs NYG (rank 27 RB defense) - Rushing lanes open 4. Juwan Johnson vs CAR (rank 23 TE defense) - Soft coverage

Worst Matchups on Roster: 1. Rashee Rice vs LAC (#1 WR defense) - Only 13.5 fpts/game allowed 2. Hunter Henry vs BUF (#1 TE defense) - 3.6 fpts/game allowed 3. Omarion Hampton vs KC (rank 7 RB defense) - Tough sledding 4. Jordan Love vs DEN (rank 4 QB defense) - Solid pass rush

Waiver Wire Notes

Potential Adds (if roster space): - Devin Neal (NO) - With Kamara OUT, Neal practiced in full - Riley Leonard (IND) - Starting QB, rushing upside in garbage time

Final Confidence Tiers

Locked-In Starters (High Confidence): - Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Bears D/ST, Marcus Mariota, Jason Myers

Solid Starters (Medium-High): - Rashee Rice (talent > matchup), Jameson Williams (game script)

Acceptable Starters (Medium): - Juwan Johnson, Omarion Hampton

Already Played: - Bucky Irving (8.1 pts - underperformed 14.5 projection)

Reddit Insights

Hot Topics

Kyle Pitts explosion game - communal mourning for opponents
Chase Brown breakout without Tee Higgins
Alvin Kamara OUT opens opportunity for Devin Neal
MHJ ruled out - expected back later this season

Positive Buzz: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Bears D/ST, Marcus Mariota, Jameson Williams

Negative Buzz: Hunter Henry vs BUF, Tyjae Spears vs SF

Mixed Buzz: Rashee Rice vs LAC, Omarion Hampton vs KC

Sources

Reddit (2025-12-12)
Vegas (2025-12-12)
Defense (2025-12-12)
Ecr (2025-12-12)
Weather (2025-12-12)

Waiver Wire Notes

No waiver recommendations this week.

Injury Concerns

No major injury concerns.

Week 15 Prediction Accuracy (In Progress)

Live data from completed games

11.1

Our Team MAE

25 players

11.5

Opponent MAE

9 players

0.0

Free Agent MAE

3 players

Players Tracked

Combined MAE: 10.3

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category	Pos	Player	ESPN	LLM	Actual	Error
Our Team	WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	20.6	22.0	0.0	-22.0
Our Team	QB	Marcus Mariota	18.1	19.0	0.0	-19.0
Opponent	RB	Jonathan Taylor	17.6	-	0.0	-17.6
Our Team	QB	Jordan Love	14.8	17.0	0.0	-17.0
Our Team	WR	Rashee Rice	17.2	17.0	0.0	-17.0
Our Team	WR	A.J. Brown	16.8	17.0	0.0	-17.0
Our Team	RB	Jonathan Taylor	16.7	17.0	0.0	-17.0
Opponent	WR	A.J. Brown	16.8	-	0.0	-16.8
Opponent	QB	Caleb Williams	16.1	-	0.0	-16.1
Our Team	WR	Jameson Williams	13.9	16.0	0.0	-16.0
Our Team	WR	Justin Jefferson	15.7	16.0	0.0	-16.0
Our Team	QB	Caleb Williams	16.1	16.0	0.0	-16.0
Opponent	WR	Justin Jefferson	15.7	-	0.0	-15.7
Our Team	WR	Tetairoa McMillan	13.2	14.0	0.0	-14.0
Opponent	RB	Kenneth Gainwell	12.6	-	0.0	-12.6
Our Team	RB	Omarion Hampton	11.7	11.0	0.0	-11.0
Our Team	K	Jason Myers	8.5	11.0	0.0	-11.0
Our Team	TE	Juwan Johnson	9.7	10.0	0.0	-10.0
Our Team	RB	Devin Singletary	10.8	9.0	0.0	-9.0
Our Team	TE	Dalton Schultz	8.9	9.0	0.0	-9.0
Our Team	D/ST	Bears D/ST	6.6	9.0	0.0	-9.0
Opponent	TE	Dalton Schultz	8.9	-	0.0	-8.9
Opponent	K	Jake Elliott	8.0	-	0.0	-8.0
Our Team	RB	Tyjae Spears	10.1	8.0	0.0	-8.0
Our Team	WR	Luther Burden III	8.1	8.0	0.0	-8.0
Our Team	K	Jake Elliott	8.0	8.0	0.0	-8.0
Our Team	TE	Hunter Henry	10.3	7.0	0.0	-7.0
Our Team	RB	Bucky Irving	15.2	14.5	8.1	-6.4
Our Team	D/ST	Rams D/ST	4.2	6.0	0.0	-6.0
Opponent	D/ST	Saints D/ST	5.9	-	0.0	-5.9
Our Team	RB	Sean Tucker	2.9	3.0	6.7	+3.7
Our Team	WR	Emeka Egbuka	12.0	12.0	10.4	-1.6
Opponent	WR	Emeka Egbuka	12.0	-	10.4	-1.6
Our Team	WR	Marvin Harrison Jr.	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
Free Agent	RB	Chuba Hubbard	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
Free Agent	TE	Harold Fannin Jr.	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
Free Agent	D/ST	Steelers D/ST	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0

Week 14 Prediction Accuracy (Final)

Final review from run_013 (2025-12-08)

2.3

Our Team MAE

16 players

7.0

Opponent MAE

10 players

13.6

Free Agent MAE

3 players

Players Tracked

Combined MAE: 5.1

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category	Pos	Player	ESPN	LLM	Actual	Error
Free Agent	QB	Sam Darnold	0.0	-	22.3	+22.3
Free Agent	RB	Devin Neal	0.0	-	15.4	+15.4
Opponent	K	Brandon Aubrey	8.9	8.9	24.0	+15.1
Opponent	QB	Patrick Mahomes	17.9	20.1	6.3	-13.8
Opponent	WR	DJ Moore	9.1	11.9	0.6	-11.3
Our Team	WR	Rashee Rice	17.1	17.0	7.4	-9.6
Opponent	D/ST	Vikings D/ST	5.2	6.3	15.0	+8.7
Opponent	RB	Nick Chubb	5.3	7.5	0.3	-7.2
Our Team	RB	Omarion Hampton	12.1	8.0	14.7	+6.7
Our Team	WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	20.9	22.0	28.1	+6.1
Opponent	WR	Keon Coleman	6.7	9.2	3.6	-5.6
Opponent	TE	Dalton Kincaid	10.0	9.6	14.1	+4.5
Opponent	WR	Malik Washington	8.4	8.2	4.0	-4.2
Our Team	K	Jason Myers	8.3	10.0	14.0	+4.0
Our Team	D/ST	Rams D/ST	6.8	9.0	6.0	-3.0
Our Team	WR	Luther Burden III	10.3	8.0	11.0	+3.0
Free Agent	D/ST	Commanders D/ST	0.0	-	3.0	+3.0
Our Team	TE	Juwan Johnson	9.7	10.0	7.8	-2.2
Our Team	RB	Tyjae Spears	8.6	8.0	6.7	-1.3
Our Team	QB	Jordan Love	17.6	18.0	19.3	+1.3
Our Team	RB	Bucky Irving	16.4	16.0	16.1	+0.1
Opponent	RB	Ollie Gordon II	3.2	7.8	7.7	-0.1
Our Team	QB	Jacoby Brissett	15.3	19.0	19.0	+0.0
Our Team	WR	Tetairoa McMillan	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
Our Team	WR	Marvin Harrison Jr.	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
Our Team	WR	Jameson Williams	13.8	17.3	17.3	+0.0
Our Team	TE	Hunter Henry	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
Our Team	RB	Devin Singletary	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
Opponent	RB	Ray Davis	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0

ESPN Projection Accuracy

$projection_accuracy_by_position.png$

XGBoost Boom/Bust Calibration

LLM vs ESPN Comparison

Data Quality & Discrepancies

This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.

Week 15 Discrepancy Log

No discrepancies detected this week.