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LLM-selected modes based on XGBoost and Monte Carlo inputs
| Slot | Player | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Marcus Mariota | NYG | 18.1 | 19.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| RB | Bucky Irving | ATL | 15.2 | 14.5 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| RB | Omarion Hampton | KC | 11.7 | 11.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | IND | 20.6 | 22.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| WR | Rashee Rice | LAC | 17.2 | 17.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| TE | Juwan Johnson | CAR | 9.7 | 10.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| WR | Jameson Williams | LAR | 13.9 | 16.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| K | Jason Myers | IND | 8.5 | 11.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| D/ST | Bears D/ST | CLE | 6.6 | 9.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
Jordan Love (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Jacoby Brissett (Elite ceiling (30 pts)), Devin Singletary (Elite ceiling (26 pts)), Tyjae Spears (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Tetairoa McMillan (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Luther Burden III (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Hunter Henry (Elite ceiling (31 pts)), Rams D/ST (Elite ceiling (25 pts))
Hold proven performers, ceiling matters more than this week's matchup
See ML Analysis tab for MC histograms. See Waivers tab for full analysis.
Week 15 projects to 123 points with Bucky Irving already contributing 8.1 from Thursday's game. Marcus Mariota leads at QB with a favorable NYG matchup (ECR QB13), while Jaxon Smith-Njigba headlines the receivers as the consensus #1 WR against Indianapolis' soft pass defense (rank 25). The FLEX decision goes to Jameson Williams over Tetairoa McMillan, capitalizing on the DET-LAR shootout (54.5 game total). Key concerns include Rashee Rice facing LAC's elite #1 WR defense and Hunter Henry benched against Buffalo's league-best TE coverage.
| Player | Pos | Slot | Actual | ESPN | LLM | vs LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | RB | RB | ✓ 8.1 | 15.2 | 14.5 | -6.4 |
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | QB | QB | 18.1 | 19.0 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | RB | 11.7 | 11.0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | WR | 20.6 | 22.0 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | WR | 17.2 | 17.0 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | TE | 9.7 | 10.0 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | RB/WR/TE | 13.9 | 16.0 |
| Jason Myers | K | K | 8.5 | 11.0 |
| Bears D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | 6.6 | 9.0 |
| Devin Singletary (bench) | RB | BE | 10.8 | 9.0 |
| Hunter Henry (bench) | TE | BE | 10.3 | 7.0 |
| Jordan Love (bench) | QB | BE | 14.8 | 17.0 |
| Rams D/ST (bench) | D/ST | BE | 4.2 | 6.0 |
| Tetairoa McMillan (bench) | WR | BE | 13.2 | 14.0 |
| Tyjae Spears (bench) | RB | BE | 10.1 | 8.0 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (bench) | WR | IR | 0.0 | --- |
| Player | Pos | Slot | Actual | ESPN | LLM | vs ESPN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emeka Egbuka | WR | RB/WR/TE | ✓ 10.4 | 12.0 | --- | -1.6 |
| Sean Tucker (bench) | RB | BE | ✓ 6.7 | 2.9 | --- | +3.8 |
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | QB | QB | 16.1 | --- |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | RB | 17.6 | --- |
| Kenneth Gainwell | RB | RB | 12.6 | --- |
| A.J. Brown | WR | WR | 16.8 | --- |
| Justin Jefferson | WR | WR | 15.7 | --- |
| Dalton Schultz | TE | TE | 8.9 | --- |
| Jake Elliott | K | K | 8.0 | --- |
| Saints D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | 5.9 | --- |
| C.J. Stroud (bench) | QB | BE | 17.3 | --- |
| Courtland Sutton (bench) | WR | BE | 13.1 | --- |
| David Njoku (bench) | TE | BE | 0.0 | --- |
| Jakobi Meyers (bench) | WR | BE | 11.7 | --- |
| Khalil Shakir (bench) | WR | BE | 10.5 | --- |
| Wan'Dale Robinson (bench) | WR | BE | 14.7 | --- |
Projections: ESPN 14.8 | LLM 17.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 49% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 27% boom, 21% bust (this week). DEN defense rank 4 vs QB - tough matchup. Game total 42.5. Balanced XGB signals despite tough defense. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 17.0 pts (within 9-24 range).
Context: O/U: 42.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 49% | BOOM: 23%
XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 21% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | CHI | 17.6 | 18.0 | 19.3 | +1.6 |
| 13 | DET | 15.7 | 18.2 | 25.8 | +10.0 |
| 12 | MIN | 17.4 | - | 7.1 | -10.4 |
| 11 | NYG | 16.3 | - | 17.7 | +1.3 |
| 10 | PHI | 17.0 | - | 7.8 | -9.1 |
| 9 | CAR | 18.1 | - | 9.0 | -9.1 |
| 8 | PIT | 17.1 | - | 28.3 | +11.2 |
| 7 | ARI | 17.4 | - | 13.4 | -4.0 |
| 6 | CIN | 19.3 | - | 15.0 | -4.4 |
| 5 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | DAL | 18.6 | - | 26.3 | +7.7 |
| 3 | CLE | 16.0 | - | 11.1 | -4.9 |
| 2 | WSH | 17.6 | - | 20.9 | +3.3 |
| 1 | DET | 14.9 | - | 15.9 | +1.0 |
Projections: ESPN 13.9 | LLM 15.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 73% BOOM (historical - small sample). XGB: 14% boom, 37% bust. HOU defense rank 5 vs WR but QB not as affected. Streaming option if needed. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 15.0 pts.
Context: O/U: 42.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 73%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 37% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | LAR | 15.3 | 19.0 | 19.0 | +3.7 |
| 13 | TB | 17.2 | 20.5 | 19.6 | +2.4 |
| 12 | JAX | 16.7 | - | 18.7 | +1.9 |
| 11 | SF | 17.9 | - | 21.9 | +3.9 |
| 10 | SEA | 15.3 | - | 19.4 | +4.2 |
| 9 | DAL | 19.4 | - | 24.8 | +5.4 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | GB | 16.6 | - | 19.8 | +3.2 |
| 6 | IND | 13.4 | - | 20.7 | +7.3 |
| 5 | TEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | SEA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | CAR | 0.0 | - | 0.2 | +0.2 |
| 1 | NO | 0.1 | - | 0.0 | -0.1 |
Projections: ESPN 18.1 | LLM 19.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 42% BOOM (historical). XGB: 17% boom, 51% bust (this week). ECR QB13 vs soft NYG defense. Game total 46.5 suggests scoring. Mariota has rushing upside (30.5 rushing prop). Despite XGB bust concern, favorable matchup supports MODERATE mode. Projection: 19.0 pts (within 7-22 range).
Context: O/U: 46.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 15% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 42%
XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 51% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | - | -2.1 | -2.1 |
| 13 | BYE | 14.8 | - | 23.3 | +8.4 |
| 12 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | BYE | 18.2 | - | 15.4 | -2.8 |
| 10 | BYE | 16.3 | - | 18.7 | +2.4 |
| 9 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | BYE | 16.9 | - | 11.3 | -5.6 |
| 7 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 3.9 | +3.9 |
| 6 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | ATL | 0.0 | - | 16.2 | +16.2 |
| 3 | BYE | 17.0 | - | 20.3 | +3.2 |
| 2 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | BYE | 0.2 | - | 0.0 | -0.2 |
Projections: ESPN 15.2 | LLM 14.5 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 65% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 11% boom, 49% bust (this week). ATL defense rank 19 vs RB, game total 44.5. Pre-game mode: MODERATE. Pre-game projection: 14.5 pts (within 8-20 range). ACTUAL: 8.1 pts (Thursday night game).
Context: O/U: 44.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 17% | MODERATE: 65% | BOOM: 19%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 49% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | NO | 16.4 | 16.0 | 16.1 | -0.3 |
| 13 | ARI | 11.8 | 12.0 | 16.1 | +4.3 |
| 12 | LAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | BUF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | NE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | NO | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | SEA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | PHI | 17.5 | - | 25.5 | +8.0 |
| 3 | NYJ | 17.9 | - | 13.9 | -4.0 |
| 2 | HOU | 15.9 | - | 18.1 | +2.2 |
| 1 | ATL | 17.3 | - | 14.5 | -2.8 |
Projections: ESPN 10.1 | LLM 8.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 67% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 13% boom, 43% bust (this week). SF defense rank 11 vs RB. Game total 44.5 but TEN big underdog. Limited role behind Henry. XGB bust concerns. Mode: MODERATE (low). Projection: 8.0 pts (within 3-15 range).
Context: O/U: 44.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 18% | MODERATE: 67% | BOOM: 15%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 43% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | CLE | 8.6 | 8.0 | 6.7 | -1.9 |
| 13 | JAX | 9.9 | 8.0 | 8.4 | -1.5 |
| 12 | SEA | 9.6 | - | 6.5 | -3.1 |
| 11 | HOU | 9.0 | - | 8.4 | -0.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | LAC | 9.5 | - | 9.2 | -0.3 |
| 8 | IND | 9.5 | - | 17.2 | +7.7 |
| 7 | NE | 7.8 | - | 7.0 | -0.8 |
| 6 | LV | 5.6 | - | 9.0 | +3.4 |
| 5 | ARI | 5.4 | - | 1.4 | -4.0 |
| 4 | HOU | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | LAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | DEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 11.7 | LLM 11.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 47% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 10% boom, 51% bust (this week). Tough KC defense rank 7 vs RB, game total 41.5. XGB bust signal concerning but MC supports MODERATE. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 11.0 pts (within 6-18 range).
Context: O/U: 41.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 27%
XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 51% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | PHI | 12.1 | 8.0 | 14.7 | +2.6 |
| 13 | LV | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | PIT | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | TEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | MIN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | MIA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | WSH | 18.6 | - | 13.0 | -5.6 |
| 4 | NYG | 16.7 | - | 27.5 | +10.8 |
| 3 | DEN | 12.2 | - | 24.9 | +12.7 |
| 2 | LV | 15.7 | - | 3.5 | -12.2 |
| 1 | KC | 14.7 | - | 8.1 | -6.6 |
Projections: ESPN 10.8 | LLM 9.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 58% BUST (historical). XGB: 14% boom, 54% bust (this week). WSH defense rank 27 vs RB - soft matchup! ECR RB33. Historical bust pattern but matchup is very favorable. Mode: MODERATE (matchup override). Projection: 9.0 pts (within 4-16 range).
Context: O/U: 46.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 58% | MODERATE: 22% | BOOM: 20%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 54% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | NE | 6.3 | - | 19.2 | +12.9 |
| 12 | DET | 9.9 | - | 4.7 | -5.2 |
| 11 | GB | 9.6 | - | 17.7 | +8.1 |
| 10 | CHI | 9.7 | - | 10.3 | +0.6 |
| 9 | SF | 5.5 | - | 7.1 | +1.6 |
| 8 | PHI | 1.2 | - | 3.8 | +2.6 |
| 7 | DEN | 0.8 | - | 0.2 | -0.6 |
| 6 | PHI | 1.0 | - | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | NO | 6.0 | - | 3.4 | -2.6 |
| 4 | LAC | 7.4 | - | 2.8 | -4.6 |
| 3 | KC | 1.1 | - | 1.1 | +0.0 |
| 2 | DAL | 3.2 | - | 1.0 | -2.2 |
| 1 | WSH | 3.5 | - | 0.9 | -2.6 |
Projections: ESPN 20.6 | LLM 22.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 41% MODERATE, 29% BOOM (historical). XGB: 11% boom, 23% bust (this week). ECR #1 WR! IND defense rank 25 (soft). Prop line 96.5 rec yards. Elite opportunity but XGB tempers boom expectations. Mode: MODERATE (upper). Projection: 22.0 pts (within 13-25 range).
Context: O/U: 42.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 30% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 29%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 23% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | ATL | 20.9 | 22.0 | 28.1 | +7.2 |
| 13 | MIN | 21.9 | 24.0 | 4.3 | -17.6 |
| 12 | TEN | 21.3 | - | 37.1 | +15.8 |
| 11 | LAR | 23.0 | - | 20.6 | -2.4 |
| 10 | ARI | 22.0 | - | 20.3 | -1.7 |
| 9 | WSH | 24.5 | - | 22.0 | -2.5 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | HOU | 20.0 | - | 26.3 | +6.3 |
| 6 | JAX | 17.9 | - | 30.2 | +12.3 |
| 5 | TB | 15.9 | - | 27.2 | +11.3 |
| 4 | ARI | 16.4 | - | 13.0 | -3.4 |
| 3 | NO | 15.5 | - | 20.6 | +5.1 |
| 2 | PIT | 14.4 | - | 18.3 | +3.9 |
| 1 | SF | 14.7 | - | 19.4 | +4.7 |
Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 14.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 50% BUST, 34% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 21% boom, 22% bust (this week). NO defense rank 28 vs WR - elite soft matchup. ECR WR14. Rookie inconsistency but XGB balanced and matchup is premium. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 14.0 pts (within 8-20 range).
Context: O/U: 40.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 16%
XGB (This Week): Boom 21% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | LAR | 13.2 | 13.0 | 11.3 | -1.9 |
| 12 | SF | 16.3 | - | 11.5 | -4.8 |
| 11 | ATL | 13.5 | - | 33.0 | +19.5 |
| 10 | NO | 12.2 | - | 11.0 | -1.2 |
| 9 | GB | 12.9 | - | 8.6 | -4.3 |
| 8 | BUF | 13.4 | - | 16.9 | +3.5 |
| 7 | NYJ | 12.5 | - | 6.3 | -6.2 |
| 6 | DAL | 14.6 | - | 17.9 | +3.3 |
| 5 | MIA | 14.2 | - | 13.3 | -0.9 |
| 4 | NE | 14.2 | - | 10.2 | -4.0 |
| 3 | ATL | 13.2 | - | 7.8 | -5.4 |
| 2 | ARI | 13.5 | - | 16.0 | +2.5 |
| 1 | JAX | 13.9 | - | 11.8 | -2.1 |
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (BUST)
Reasoning: OUT - Confirmed injury. ESPN projection 0.0. Mode: BUST. Projection: 0.0 pts.
Context: O/U: 42.5
MC (Historical): OUT: 100%
XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 19% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | LAR | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | TB | 13.7 | 14.0 | 12.9 | -0.8 |
| 12 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | SEA | 13.3 | - | 14.3 | +1.0 |
| 9 | DAL | 13.3 | - | 22.6 | +9.3 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | GB | 12.5 | - | 7.8 | -4.7 |
| 6 | IND | 11.9 | - | 5.2 | -6.7 |
| 5 | TEN | 12.8 | - | 13.8 | +1.0 |
| 4 | SEA | 11.3 | - | 18.6 | +7.3 |
| 3 | SF | 12.7 | - | 7.4 | -5.3 |
| 2 | CAR | 14.0 | - | 4.7 | -9.3 |
| 1 | NO | 13.9 | - | 18.1 | +4.2 |
Projections: ESPN 17.2 | LLM 17.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 43% BOOM (historical). XGB: 25% boom, 32% bust (this week). LAC has #1 WR defense - toughest matchup. ECR WR8. Prop line 68.5 rec yards. Historical boom pattern but elite defense caps upside. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 17.0 pts (within 10-22 range).
Context: O/U: 41.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 26% | BOOM: 43%
XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 32% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | HOU | 17.1 | 17.0 | 7.4 | -9.7 |
| 13 | DAL | 18.1 | 18.4 | 29.4 | +11.3 |
| 12 | IND | 17.6 | - | 24.1 | +6.5 |
| 11 | DEN | 16.4 | - | 9.8 | -6.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BUF | 18.4 | - | 18.6 | +0.2 |
| 8 | WSH | 17.2 | - | 25.5 | +8.2 |
| 7 | LV | 13.7 | - | 23.2 | +9.5 |
| 6 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | BAL | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | NYG | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | PHI | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | LAC | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 13.9 | LLM 16.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 47% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 12% boom, 48% bust (this week). ECR WR10. LAR defense rank 18 vs WR, high game total 54.5. DET offense should score, but XGB bust signal is concerning. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 16.0 pts (within 10-22 range).
Context: O/U: 54.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 30% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 24%
XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 48% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | DAL | 13.8 | 17.3 | 17.3 | +3.5 |
| 13 | GB | 11.8 | 15.1 | 26.9 | +15.1 |
| 12 | NYG | 12.9 | - | 0.0 | -12.9 |
| 11 | PHI | 12.6 | - | 19.7 | +7.1 |
| 10 | WSH | 12.1 | - | 23.9 | +11.8 |
| 9 | MIN | 11.0 | - | 16.6 | +5.6 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | TB | 13.2 | - | 0.0 | -13.2 |
| 6 | KC | 10.7 | - | 18.6 | +7.9 |
| 5 | CIN | 11.8 | - | 2.0 | -9.8 |
| 4 | CLE | 10.7 | - | 5.7 | -5.0 |
| 3 | BAL | 12.9 | - | 6.3 | -6.6 |
| 2 | CHI | 13.0 | - | 18.8 | +5.8 |
| 1 | GB | 12.9 | - | 6.6 | -6.3 |
Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 8.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 57% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 14% boom, 44% bust. Rookie WR in CHI offense. CLE defense rank 8 vs WR. Limited upside. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 8.0 pts.
Context: O/U: 38.5ˢ | ECR: 35ˢ
MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 57% | BOOM: 12%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 44% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | GB | 10.3 | 8.0 | 11.0 | +0.7 |
| 13 | PHI | 8.3 | - | 7.6 | -0.7 |
| 12 | PIT | 7.6 | - | 9.1 | +1.5 |
| 11 | MIN | 6.2 | - | 5.7 | -0.5 |
| 10 | NYG | 3.4 | - | 8.1 | +4.7 |
| 9 | CIN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | BAL | 4.8 | - | 0.9 | -3.9 |
| 7 | NO | 4.9 | - | 3.1 | -1.8 |
| 6 | WSH | 4.8 | - | 9.1 | +4.3 |
| 5 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | LV | 5.8 | - | 1.6 | -4.2 |
| 3 | DAL | 2.7 | - | 19.8 | +17.1 |
| 2 | DET | 2.7 | - | 1.5 | -1.2 |
| 1 | MIN | 3.2 | - | 0.7 | -2.5 |
Projections: ESPN 9.7 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 42% MODERATE, 32% BOOM (historical). XGB: 15% boom, 60% bust (this week). CAR defense rank 23 vs TE (soft). Low game total 40.5. High bust probability but soft matchup. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 10.0 pts (within 5-14 range).
Context: O/U: 40.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 32%
XGB (This Week): Boom 15% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | TB | 9.7 | 10.0 | 7.8 | -1.9 |
| 13 | MIA | 8.7 | 11.0 | 8.9 | +0.2 |
| 12 | ATL | 9.3 | - | 10.6 | +1.3 |
| 11 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | CAR | 8.9 | - | 19.2 | +10.2 |
| 9 | LAR | 8.3 | - | 12.1 | +3.8 |
| 8 | TB | 9.6 | - | 10.3 | +0.7 |
| 7 | CHI | 7.5 | - | 12.9 | +5.4 |
| 6 | NE | 7.9 | - | 1.5 | -6.4 |
| 5 | NYG | 7.9 | - | 3.7 | -4.2 |
| 4 | BUF | 11.1 | - | 5.8 | -5.3 |
| 3 | SEA | 10.6 | - | 11.1 | +0.5 |
| 2 | SF | 9.1 | - | 15.9 | +6.8 |
| 1 | ARI | 7.3 | - | 15.6 | +8.3 |
Projections: ESPN 10.3 | LLM 7.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: MC: 42% BUST, 46% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 8% boom, 60% bust (this week). BUF has #1 TE defense! Only 3.6 fpts/game allowed. Game total 49.5 irrelevant. XGB strongly signals BUST - trust it vs elite defense. Mode: BUST. Projection: 7.0 pts (within 2-8 range).
Context: O/U: 49.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 42% | MODERATE: 46% | BOOM: 13%
XGB (This Week): Boom 8% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | NYG | 11.2 | - | 11.3 | +0.1 |
| 12 | CIN | 11.4 | - | 24.5 | +13.1 |
| 11 | NYJ | 10.0 | - | 8.5 | -1.5 |
| 10 | TB | 10.7 | - | 1.9 | -8.8 |
| 9 | ATL | 9.1 | - | 9.1 | -0.0 |
| 8 | CLE | 9.4 | - | 7.7 | -1.7 |
| 7 | TEN | 9.3 | - | 7.3 | -2.0 |
| 6 | NO | 10.3 | - | 5.7 | -4.6 |
| 5 | BUF | 11.1 | - | 6.6 | -4.5 |
| 4 | CAR | 11.2 | - | 11.9 | +0.7 |
| 3 | PIT | 9.1 | - | 29.0 | +19.9 |
| 2 | MIA | 9.7 | - | 1.9 | -7.8 |
| 1 | LV | 8.8 | - | 10.6 | +1.8 |
Projections: ESPN 14.8 | LLM 17.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 49% | BOOM: 23%
XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 21%
Notes: MC: 49% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 27% boom, 21% bust (this week). DEN defense rank 4 vs QB - tough matchup. Game total 42.5. Balanced XGB signals despite tough defense. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 17.0 pts (within 9-24 range).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | CHI | 17.6 | 18.0 | 19.3 | +1.6 |
| 13 | DET | 15.7 | 18.2 | 25.8 | +10.0 |
| 12 | MIN | 17.4 | - | 7.1 | -10.4 |
| 11 | NYG | 16.3 | - | 17.7 | +1.3 |
| 10 | PHI | 17.0 | - | 7.8 | -9.1 |
| 9 | CAR | 18.1 | - | 9.0 | -9.1 |
| 8 | PIT | 17.1 | - | 28.3 | +11.2 |
| 7 | ARI | 17.4 | - | 13.4 | -4.0 |
| 6 | CIN | 19.3 | - | 15.0 | -4.4 |
| 5 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | DAL | 18.6 | - | 26.3 | +7.7 |
| 3 | CLE | 16.0 | - | 11.1 | -4.9 |
| 2 | WSH | 17.6 | - | 20.9 | +3.3 |
| 1 | DET | 14.9 | - | 15.9 | +1.0 |
Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 14.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 16%
XGB (This Week): Boom 21% | Bust 22%
Notes: MC: 50% BUST, 34% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 21% boom, 22% bust (this week). NO defense rank 28 vs WR - elite soft matchup. ECR WR14. Rookie inconsistency but XGB balanced and matchup is premium. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 14.0 pts (within 8-20 range).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | LAR | 13.2 | 13.0 | 11.3 | -1.9 |
| 12 | SF | 16.3 | - | 11.5 | -4.8 |
| 11 | ATL | 13.5 | - | 33.0 | +19.5 |
| 10 | NO | 12.2 | - | 11.0 | -1.2 |
| 9 | GB | 12.9 | - | 8.6 | -4.3 |
| 8 | BUF | 13.4 | - | 16.9 | +3.5 |
| 7 | NYJ | 12.5 | - | 6.3 | -6.2 |
| 6 | DAL | 14.6 | - | 17.9 | +3.3 |
| 5 | MIA | 14.2 | - | 13.3 | -0.9 |
| 4 | NE | 14.2 | - | 10.2 | -4.0 |
| 3 | ATL | 13.2 | - | 7.8 | -5.4 |
| 2 | ARI | 13.5 | - | 16.0 | +2.5 |
| 1 | JAX | 13.9 | - | 11.8 | -2.1 |
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A
MC (Historical): OUT: 100%
XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 19%
Notes: OUT - Confirmed injury. ESPN projection 0.0. Mode: BUST. Projection: 0.0 pts.
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | LAR | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | TB | 13.7 | 14.0 | 12.9 | -0.8 |
| 12 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | SEA | 13.3 | - | 14.3 | +1.0 |
| 9 | DAL | 13.3 | - | 22.6 | +9.3 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | GB | 12.5 | - | 7.8 | -4.7 |
| 6 | IND | 11.9 | - | 5.2 | -6.7 |
| 5 | TEN | 12.8 | - | 13.8 | +1.0 |
| 4 | SEA | 11.3 | - | 18.6 | +7.3 |
| 3 | SF | 12.7 | - | 7.4 | -5.3 |
| 2 | CAR | 14.0 | - | 4.7 | -9.3 |
| 1 | NO | 13.9 | - | 18.1 | +4.2 |
Projections: ESPN 10.1 | LLM 8.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 18% | MODERATE: 67% | BOOM: 15%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 43%
Notes: MC: 67% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 13% boom, 43% bust (this week). SF defense rank 11 vs RB. Game total 44.5 but TEN big underdog. Limited role behind Henry. XGB bust concerns. Mode: MODERATE (low). Projection: 8.0 pts (within 3-15 range).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | CLE | 8.6 | 8.0 | 6.7 | -1.9 |
| 13 | JAX | 9.9 | 8.0 | 8.4 | -1.5 |
| 12 | SEA | 9.6 | - | 6.5 | -3.1 |
| 11 | HOU | 9.0 | - | 8.4 | -0.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | LAC | 9.5 | - | 9.2 | -0.3 |
| 8 | IND | 9.5 | - | 17.2 | +7.7 |
| 7 | NE | 7.8 | - | 7.0 | -0.8 |
| 6 | LV | 5.6 | - | 9.0 | +3.4 |
| 5 | ARI | 5.4 | - | 1.4 | -4.0 |
| 4 | HOU | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | LAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | DEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 13.9 | LLM 15.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 73%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 37%
Notes: MC: 73% BOOM (historical - small sample). XGB: 14% boom, 37% bust. HOU defense rank 5 vs WR but QB not as affected. Streaming option if needed. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 15.0 pts.
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | LAR | 15.3 | 19.0 | 19.0 | +3.7 |
| 13 | TB | 17.2 | 20.5 | 19.6 | +2.4 |
| 12 | JAX | 16.7 | - | 18.7 | +1.9 |
| 11 | SF | 17.9 | - | 21.9 | +3.9 |
| 10 | SEA | 15.3 | - | 19.4 | +4.2 |
| 9 | DAL | 19.4 | - | 24.8 | +5.4 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | GB | 16.6 | - | 19.8 | +3.2 |
| 6 | IND | 13.4 | - | 20.7 | +7.3 |
| 5 | TEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | SEA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | CAR | 0.0 | - | 0.2 | +0.2 |
| 1 | NO | 0.1 | - | 0.0 | -0.1 |
Projections: ESPN 4.2 | LLM 6.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 40% | MODERATE: 38% | BOOM: 22%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 59%
Notes: MC: 40% BUST (historical). XGB: 13% boom, 59% bust (this week). Playing DET - high-powered offense. Game total 54.5 (highest of week). XGB strongly signals BUST. Avoid starting. Mode: BUST. Projection: 6.0 pts (within -2-10 range).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | ARI | 6.9 | 9.0 | 6.0 | -0.9 |
| 13 | CAR | 7.5 | 10.0 | 1.0 | -6.5 |
| 12 | TB | 5.7 | - | 20.0 | +14.3 |
| 11 | SEA | 5.4 | - | 5.0 | -0.4 |
| 10 | SF | 6.4 | - | 5.0 | -1.4 |
| 9 | NO | 8.2 | - | 10.0 | +1.8 |
| 7 | JAX | 6.7 | - | 9.0 | +2.3 |
| 6 | BAL | 6.2 | - | 16.0 | +9.8 |
| 5 | SF | 7.0 | - | -2.0 | -9.0 |
| 4 | IND | 5.7 | - | 6.0 | +0.3 |
| 3 | PHI | 5.2 | - | 7.0 | +1.8 |
| 2 | TEN | 7.4 | - | 9.0 | +1.6 |
| 1 | HOU | 5.6 | - | 12.0 | +6.4 |
Projections: ESPN 10.3 | LLM 7.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 42% | MODERATE: 46% | BOOM: 13%
XGB (This Week): Boom 8% | Bust 60%
Notes: MC: 42% BUST, 46% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 8% boom, 60% bust (this week). BUF has #1 TE defense! Only 3.6 fpts/game allowed. Game total 49.5 irrelevant. XGB strongly signals BUST - trust it vs elite defense. Mode: BUST. Projection: 7.0 pts (within 2-8 range).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | NYG | 11.2 | - | 11.3 | +0.1 |
| 12 | CIN | 11.4 | - | 24.5 | +13.1 |
| 11 | NYJ | 10.0 | - | 8.5 | -1.5 |
| 10 | TB | 10.7 | - | 1.9 | -8.8 |
| 9 | ATL | 9.1 | - | 9.1 | -0.0 |
| 8 | CLE | 9.4 | - | 7.7 | -1.7 |
| 7 | TEN | 9.3 | - | 7.3 | -2.0 |
| 6 | NO | 10.3 | - | 5.7 | -4.6 |
| 5 | BUF | 11.1 | - | 6.6 | -4.5 |
| 4 | CAR | 11.2 | - | 11.9 | +0.7 |
| 3 | PIT | 9.1 | - | 29.0 | +19.9 |
| 2 | MIA | 9.7 | - | 1.9 | -7.8 |
| 1 | LV | 8.8 | - | 10.6 | +1.8 |
Projections: ESPN 10.8 | LLM 9.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 58% | MODERATE: 22% | BOOM: 20%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 54%
Notes: MC: 58% BUST (historical). XGB: 14% boom, 54% bust (this week). WSH defense rank 27 vs RB - soft matchup! ECR RB33. Historical bust pattern but matchup is very favorable. Mode: MODERATE (matchup override). Projection: 9.0 pts (within 4-16 range).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | NE | 6.3 | - | 19.2 | +12.9 |
| 12 | DET | 9.9 | - | 4.7 | -5.2 |
| 11 | GB | 9.6 | - | 17.7 | +8.1 |
| 10 | CHI | 9.7 | - | 10.3 | +0.6 |
| 9 | SF | 5.5 | - | 7.1 | +1.6 |
| 8 | PHI | 1.2 | - | 3.8 | +2.6 |
| 7 | DEN | 0.8 | - | 0.2 | -0.6 |
| 6 | PHI | 1.0 | - | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | NO | 6.0 | - | 3.4 | -2.6 |
| 4 | LAC | 7.4 | - | 2.8 | -4.6 |
| 3 | KC | 1.1 | - | 1.1 | +0.0 |
| 2 | DAL | 3.2 | - | 1.0 | -2.2 |
| 1 | WSH | 3.5 | - | 0.9 | -2.6 |
Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 8.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 57% | BOOM: 12%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 44%
Notes: MC: 57% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 14% boom, 44% bust. Rookie WR in CHI offense. CLE defense rank 8 vs WR. Limited upside. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 8.0 pts.
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | GB | 10.3 | 8.0 | 11.0 | +0.7 |
| 13 | PHI | 8.3 | - | 7.6 | -0.7 |
| 12 | PIT | 7.6 | - | 9.1 | +1.5 |
| 11 | MIN | 6.2 | - | 5.7 | -0.5 |
| 10 | NYG | 3.4 | - | 8.1 | +4.7 |
| 9 | CIN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | BAL | 4.8 | - | 0.9 | -3.9 |
| 7 | NO | 4.9 | - | 3.1 | -1.8 |
| 6 | WSH | 4.8 | - | 9.1 | +4.3 |
| 5 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | LV | 5.8 | - | 1.6 | -4.2 |
| 3 | DAL | 2.7 | - | 19.8 | +17.1 |
| 2 | DET | 2.7 | - | 1.5 | -1.2 |
| 1 | MIN | 3.2 | - | 0.7 | -2.5 |
| Player | Pos | Team | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% | Threat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Schultz | TE | HOU | 8.9 | 9.0 | 28% | 48% | 23% | MEDIUM | |
| Justin Jefferson | WR | MIN | 15.7 | 13.4 | 18% | 60% | 22% | LOW | |
| Jake Elliott | K | PHI | 8.0 | 7.9 | 17% | 29% | 54% | LOW | |
| Caleb Williams | QB | CHI | 16.1 | 16.9 | 13% | 68% | 19% | LOW | |
| Saints D/ST | D/ST | NO | 5.9 | 8.2 | 11% | 28% | 61% | LOW | |
| Kenneth Gainwell | RB | PIT | 12.6 | 10.1 | 10% | 40% | 51% | LOW | |
| Emeka Egbuka | WR | TB | 12.0 | 12.1 | 9% | 36% | 55% | LOW | |
| A.J. Brown | WR | PHI | 16.8 | 15.7 | 9% | 35% | 56% | LOW | |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | IND | 17.6 | 20.4 | 9% | 36% | 55% | LOW |
Dalton Schultz: MC (BUST: 43% | MODERATE: 36% | BOOM: 22%) | XGB (Boom 28% | Bust 23%)
Justin Jefferson: MC (BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 6%) | XGB (Boom 18% | Bust 22%)
Jake Elliott: MC (BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 26%) | XGB (Boom 17% | Bust 54%)
Caleb Williams: MC (BUST: 39% | MODERATE: 33% | BOOM: 28%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 19%)
Saints D/ST: MC (BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 21%) | XGB (Boom 11% | Bust 61%)
Kenneth Gainwell: MC (BUST: 39% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 19%) | XGB (Boom 10% | Bust 51%)
Emeka Egbuka: MC (BUST: 46% | MODERATE: 25% | BOOM: 29%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 55%)
A.J. Brown: MC (BUST: 19% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 37%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 56%)
Jonathan Taylor: MC (BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 22% | BOOM: 29%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 55%)
Season Phase: Playoff Positioning - Hold proven performers, ceiling matters more than this week's matchup
Click player names to view full MC histogram analysis.
Note: Protection thresholds adjust by season phase. Currently in Playoff Positioning mode. Players with high ceiling or returning from injury before playoffs are protected from drop suggestions.
| Player | Pos | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% | Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs D/ST | D/ST | 7.4 | 43% | 21% | 0.0% | |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | 12.1 | 42% | 20% | 0.0% | |
| Garrett Wilson | WR | 14.8 | 36% | 35% | 0.0% | |
| Evan Engram | TE | 8.3 | 34% | 14% | 0.0% | |
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | 8.0 | 32% | 16% | 0.0% | |
| Trey Benson | RB | 8.8 | 29% | 26% | 0.0% | |
| Michael Badgley | K | 8.6 | 27% | 54% | 0.0% | |
| Chuba Hubbard | RB | 11.5 | 21% | 31% | 0.0% | |
| Ka'imi Fairbairn | K | 10.3 | 20% | 22% | 0.0% | |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | TE | 10.5 | 20% | 9% | 0.0% | |
| Kyler Murray | QB | 16.8 | 20% | 35% | 0.0% | |
| Aaron Rodgers | QB | 14.6 | 19% | 56% | 0.0% | |
| Matthew Golden | WR | 9.0 | 18% | 48% | 0.0% | |
| Patriots D/ST | D/ST | 8.8 | 18% | 47% | 0.0% | |
| Cooper Kupp | WR | 10.0 | 16% | 58% | 0.0% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 16.8 | BUST:17%, MODERATE:58%, BOOM:25% | 20% | 35% | |
| Aaron Rodgers | 14.6 | BUST:50%, MODERATE:28%, BOOM:22% | 19% | 56% | |
| Justin Fields | 16.4 | BUST:40%, MODERATE:31%, BOOM:30% | 15% | 43% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 12.1 | BUST:47%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:13% | 42% | 20% | |
| Isiah Pacheco | 8.0 | BUST:68%, MODERATE:29%, BOOM:3% | 32% | 16% | |
| Trey Benson | 8.8 | BUST:33%, MODERATE:43%, BOOM:24% | 29% | 26% | |
| Chuba Hubbard | 11.5 | BUST:25%, MODERATE:45%, BOOM:29% | 21% | 31% | |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 8.9 | BUST:54%, MODERATE:32%, BOOM:14% | 10% | 68% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 14.8 | BUST:38%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:23% | 36% | 35% | |
| Matthew Golden | 9.0 | BUST:41%, MODERATE:28%, BOOM:31% | 18% | 48% | |
| Cooper Kupp | 10.0 | BUST:50%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:12% | 16% | 58% | |
| Rashid Shaheed | 10.1 | BUST:30%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:32% | 12% | 66% | |
| Keenan Allen | 11.9 | BUST:67%, MODERATE:24%, BOOM:10% | 11% | 66% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 8.3 | BUST:69%, MODERATE:29%, BOOM:2% | 34% | 14% | |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 10.5 | BUST:40%, MODERATE:44%, BOOM:16% | 20% | 9% | |
| Colston Loveland | 9.8 | BUST:42%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:16% | 10% | 60% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Badgley | 8.6 | 27% | 54% | |
| Ka'imi Fairbairn | 10.3 | 20% | 22% | |
| Evan McPherson | 9.5 | 14% | 68% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs D/ST | 7.4 | 43% | 21% | |
| Patriots D/ST | 8.8 | 18% | 47% | |
| Dolphins D/ST | 8.7 | 14% | 63% |
Win Probability
Floor: -33.7 pts | Median: +8.6 pts | Ceiling: +48.6 pts
Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)
Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | QB | MED | 19.0 | 5.2-26.9 | ↑15+: 57% | ↓5-: 10% | |
| Bucky Irving | RB | MED | 8.1 | 5.2-24.4 | ↑15+: 44% | ↓5-: 10% | |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | HIGH | 11.0 | 3.6-24.3 | ↑15+: 36% | ↓5-: 17% | |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | MED | 22.0 | 6.3-30.2 | ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 5% | |
| Rashee Rice | WR | MED | 17.0 | 6.1-28.0 | ↑15+: 57% | ↓5-: 5% | |
| Jameson Williams | WR | HIGH | 16.0 | 4.2-25.2 | ↑15+: 48% | ↓5-: 14% | |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | HIGH | 10.0 | 2.9-16.8 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 23% | |
| Bears D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 9.0 | 0.5-16.2 | ↑15+: 13% | ↓5-: 38% | |
| Jason Myers | K | MED | 11.0 | 5.3-17.1 | ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 8% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | QB | MED | 17.0 | 6.4-27.7 | ↑15+: 55% | ↓5-: 6% | |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | HIGH | 8.0 | 2.4-18.8 | ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 26% | |
| Devin Singletary | RB | HIGH | 9.0 | 0.7-18.6 | ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 51% | |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | HIGH | 14.0 | 5.4-26.1 | ↑15+: 30% | ↓5-: 8% | |
| Hunter Henry | TE | HIGH | 7.0 | 3.2-22.1 | ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 26% | |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 6.0 | 1.1-18.0 | ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 34% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | LOW | 0.0 | 0.0-0.0 | ↑15+: 0% | ↓5-: 100% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | QB | HIGH | 17.0 | 6.0-30.0 | ↑15+: 53% | ↓5-: 7% | |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | HIGH | 20.7 | 8.6-37.6 | ↑15+: 52% | ↓5-: 0% | |
| Kenneth Gainwell | RB | HIGH | 10.1 | 1.8-24.3 | ↑15+: 23% | ↓5-: 34% | |
| Justin Jefferson | WR | HIGH | 13.4 | 5.6-22.9 | ↑15+: 38% | ↓5-: 7% | |
| A.J. Brown | WR | HIGH | 15.7 | 2.7-29.2 | ↑15+: 47% | ↓5-: 16% | |
| Emeka Egbuka | WR | HIGH | 12.2 | 3.5-24.4 | ↑15+: 33% | ↓5-: 22% | |
| Dalton Schultz | TE | HIGH | 9.0 | 2.8-17.2 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 30% | |
| Saints D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 8.2 | 0.3-17.3 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 36% | |
| Jake Elliott | K | HIGH | 8.0 | 2.2-14.7 | ↑15+: 9% | ↓5-: 32% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | QB | HIGH | 14.3 | 5.4-25.1 | ↑15+: 41% | ↓5-: 8% | |
| Sean Tucker | RB | HIGH | 10.0 | 1.3-27.4 | ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 37% | |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | WR | HIGH | 12.5 | 4.8-24.6 | ↑15+: 28% | ↓5-: 12% | |
| Courtland Sutton | WR | HIGH | 12.9 | 5.6-21.8 | ↑15+: 36% | ↓5-: 6% | |
| Jakobi Meyers | WR | HIGH | 12.5 | 5.3-21.6 | ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 8% | |
| Khalil Shakir | WR | HIGH | 10.8 | 1.8-20.2 | ↑15+: 27% | ↓5-: 26% | |
| David Njoku | TE | LOW | 0.0 | 0.0-0.0 | ↑15+: 0% | ↓5-: 100% |
| Player | Position | BOOM | MODERATE | BUST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | RB | 19% @ 24.2 | 65% @ 14.2 | 17% @ 5.0 | 14.5 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 29% @ 28.6 | 41% @ 18.7 | 30% @ 7.6 | 18.2 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 43% @ 24.3 | 26% @ 16.0 | 31% @ 7.4 | 16.9 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 27% @ 22.9 | 47% @ 11.9 | 26% @ 4.8 | 13.0 |
| Jason Myers | K | 20% @ 16.9 | 47% @ 11.8 | 33% @ 6.4 | 11.0 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 32% @ 15.0 | 42% @ 9.1 | 26% @ 3.7 | 9.6 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 24% @ 24.1 | 47% @ 15.7 | 30% @ 5.4 | 14.6 |
| Bears D/ST | D/ST | 19% @ 15.3 | 47% @ 8.1 | 34% @ 2.9 | 7.7 |
| Marcus Mariota | QB | 42% @ 22.3 | 43% @ 14.6 | 15% @ 4.8 | 16.4 |
Model input: This week's predicted mode probabilities (LLM uses these to make final decisions)
| Player | Pos | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Myers | K | 8.5 | 11.0 | MODERATE | 51.6% | 32.9% | 15.5% |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 | BUST | 42.5% | 38.0% | 19.4% |
| Jordan Love | QB | 14.8 | 17.0 | MODERATE | 26.8% | 51.8% | 21.4% |
| Bears D/ST | D/ST | 6.6 | 9.0 | MODERATE | 26.4% | 44.4% | 29.2% |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 17.2 | 17.0 | MODERATE | 24.8% | 43.2% | 32.0% |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | 13.2 | 14.0 | MODERATE | 20.8% | 56.9% | 22.3% |
| Marcus Mariota | QB | 18.1 | 19.0 | MODERATE | 17.4% | 31.7% | 50.9% |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 9.7 | 10.0 | MODERATE | 14.9% | 24.9% | 60.2% |
| Luther Burden III | WR | 8.1 | 8.0 | MODERATE | 14.4% | 41.9% | 43.7% |
| Devin Singletary | RB | 10.8 | 9.0 | MODERATE | 14.1% | 32.3% | 53.5% |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 13.9 | 15.0 | MODERATE | 13.6% | 49.0% | 37.4% |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | 10.1 | 8.0 | MODERATE | 13.4% | 44.0% | 42.6% |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | 4.2 | 6.0 | BUST | 13.4% | 27.5% | 59.1% |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 13.9 | 16.0 | MODERATE | 12.3% | 39.4% | 48.3% |
| Bucky Irving | RB | 15.2 | 14.5 | MODERATE | 10.9% | 40.4% | 48.7% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 20.6 | 22.0 | MODERATE | 10.9% | 65.8% | 23.4% |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 11.7 | 11.0 | MODERATE | 10.4% | 38.2% | 51.4% |
| Hunter Henry | TE | 10.3 | 7.0 | BUST | 8.5% | 31.0% | 60.5% |
Week 15 standings with live scores included. ESPN updates official totals on Tuesday.
| Rank | Team | Record | PF (Total) | PA (Total) | +/- | This Week | Streak | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 10-4 | 1744.9 | 1548.1 | +196.8 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W3 | 100.0% |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 9-5 | 1653.0 | 1645.4 | +7.6 | 19.2 vs 0.0 | W1 | 100.0% |
| 3 | Valued Customers ← | 8-6 | 1694.7 | 1456.0 | +238.7 | 8.1 vs 10.4 | W4 | 78.5% |
| 4 | Wookie of the Year | 8-6 | 1601.3 | 1616.8 | -15.5 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W2 | 58.3% |
| 5 | Meat Pistols | 8-6 | 1429.7 | 1547.0 | -117.4 | 0.0 vs 75.1 | L1 | 20.2% |
| 6 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 7-7 | 1644.8 | 1620.4 | +24.4 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L2 | 28.8% |
| 7 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 7-7 | 1610.5 | 1556.6 | +53.9 | 0.0 vs 19.2 | L1 | 14.3% |
| 8 | Moms rules | 6-8 | 1536.5 | 1662.1 | -125.6 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L2 | 0.0% |
| 9 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 6-8 | 1478.5 | 1545.2 | -66.7 | 0.0 vs 14.0 | L4 | 0.0% |
| 10 | Smooth Roosters | 6-8 | 1546.6 | 1561.6 | -15.0 | 75.1 vs 0.0 | W2 | 0.0% |
| 11 | The Warsaw Pact | 5-9 | 1509.1 | 1646.5 | -137.4 | 14.0 vs 0.0 | W1 | 0.0% |
| 12 | Auto DraftKings | 4-10 | 1595.3 | 1639.3 | -44.0 | 10.4 vs 8.1 | L3 | 0.0% |
| Away Team | Score | Score | Home Team | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kitty's Piggy Skins | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Moms rules |
| 4th and pinches | 19.2 | @ | 0.0 | Torta Pounders Football Club |
| Valued Customers | 8.1 | @ | 10.4 | Auto DraftKings |
| Wookie of the Year | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Ryan's Rowdy Team |
| Meat Pistols | 0.0 | @ | 75.1 | Smooth Roosters |
| Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 0.0 | @ | 14.0 | The Warsaw Pact |
Weekly and cumulative points scored by each team throughout the 2025 season. Your team (Valued Customers) is highlighted in green.
Confirmed OUT: - Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR, ARI) - Ruled out with heel injury. Coach Gannon expects him to return this season but not Week 15. [Reddit: "Marvin Harrison Jr. (heel) ruled out for Week 15"] - Alvin Kamara (RB, NO) - OUT with knee/ankle injury. Impacts Saints offense but Juwan Johnson could see increased targets.
Questionable/Game-Time Decisions: - Josh Jacobs (RB, GB) - Listed as questionable with knee swelling. Monitor before game time.
Cleared to Play: - CeeDee Lamb (WR, DAL) - Cleared concussion protocol, full go. - Riley Leonard (QB, IND) - No injury designation, will start. - Devin Neal (RB, NO) - Practiced in full Friday, off injury report.
High Confidence Starts (per r/fantasyfootball): 1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba - Universally recommended as top WR play. Multiple posts cite elite matchup vs IND. 2. Bears D/ST - Featured in "STACKED League Playoff Preview" as must-start vs CLE. 3. Marcus Mariota - Listed as "Dark Horse League Winner" candidate with rushing upside.
Concerns Raised: 1. Rashee Rice - Despite ranking, LAC's elite WR defense creates risk. 2. Omarion Hampton - Mixed sentiment; tough KC matchup but volume is there. 3. Hunter Henry - Avoid vs BUF's #1 TE defense (consensus sit).
High-Scoring Games (Offense-Friendly): - DET @ LAR: 54.5 total (highest of week) → Jameson Williams benefits - NE @ BUF: 49.5 total → But Henry still sits due to coverage - MIN @ DAL: 48.5 total → Opponent Jefferson benefits
Low-Scoring/Defense-Friendly: - CHI @ CLE: 38.5 total (lowest) → Bears D/ST smash spot - LV @ PHI: 38.5 total → A.J. Brown may have lower volume but quality
Blowout Risk (Lopsided Spreads): - SEA -13.5 vs IND → JSN could rest in 4th quarter if blowout - SF -12.5 vs TEN → Spears game script negative
Best Matchups on Roster: 1. JSN vs IND (rank 25 WR defense) - Averaging 21.0 fpts allowed to WRs 2. Bears D/ST vs CLE (rank 29 offense) - Browns turnover-prone 3. Mariota vs NYG (rank 27 RB defense) - Rushing lanes open 4. Juwan Johnson vs CAR (rank 23 TE defense) - Soft coverage
Worst Matchups on Roster: 1. Rashee Rice vs LAC (#1 WR defense) - Only 13.5 fpts/game allowed 2. Hunter Henry vs BUF (#1 TE defense) - 3.6 fpts/game allowed 3. Omarion Hampton vs KC (rank 7 RB defense) - Tough sledding 4. Jordan Love vs DEN (rank 4 QB defense) - Solid pass rush
Potential Adds (if roster space): - Devin Neal (NO) - With Kamara OUT, Neal practiced in full - Riley Leonard (IND) - Starting QB, rushing upside in garbage time
Locked-In Starters (High Confidence): - Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Bears D/ST, Marcus Mariota, Jason Myers
Solid Starters (Medium-High): - Rashee Rice (talent > matchup), Jameson Williams (game script)
Acceptable Starters (Medium): - Juwan Johnson, Omarion Hampton
Already Played: - Bucky Irving (8.1 pts - underperformed 14.5 projection)
Positive Buzz: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Bears D/ST, Marcus Mariota, Jameson Williams
Negative Buzz: Hunter Henry vs BUF, Tyjae Spears vs SF
Mixed Buzz: Rashee Rice vs LAC, Omarion Hampton vs KC
No waiver recommendations this week.
No major injury concerns.
Live data from completed games
| Category | Pos | Player | ESPN | LLM | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Our Team | WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 20.6 | 22.0 | 0.0 | -22.0 |
| Our Team | QB | Marcus Mariota | 18.1 | 19.0 | 0.0 | -19.0 |
| Opponent | RB | Jonathan Taylor | 17.6 | - | 0.0 | -17.6 |
| Our Team | QB | Jordan Love | 14.8 | 17.0 | 0.0 | -17.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Rashee Rice | 17.2 | 17.0 | 0.0 | -17.0 |
| Our Team | WR | A.J. Brown | 16.8 | 17.0 | 0.0 | -17.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Jonathan Taylor | 16.7 | 17.0 | 0.0 | -17.0 |
| Opponent | WR | A.J. Brown | 16.8 | - | 0.0 | -16.8 |
| Opponent | QB | Caleb Williams | 16.1 | - | 0.0 | -16.1 |
| Our Team | WR | Jameson Williams | 13.9 | 16.0 | 0.0 | -16.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Justin Jefferson | 15.7 | 16.0 | 0.0 | -16.0 |
| Our Team | QB | Caleb Williams | 16.1 | 16.0 | 0.0 | -16.0 |
| Opponent | WR | Justin Jefferson | 15.7 | - | 0.0 | -15.7 |
| Our Team | WR | Tetairoa McMillan | 13.2 | 14.0 | 0.0 | -14.0 |
| Opponent | RB | Kenneth Gainwell | 12.6 | - | 0.0 | -12.6 |
| Our Team | RB | Omarion Hampton | 11.7 | 11.0 | 0.0 | -11.0 |
| Our Team | K | Jason Myers | 8.5 | 11.0 | 0.0 | -11.0 |
| Our Team | TE | Juwan Johnson | 9.7 | 10.0 | 0.0 | -10.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Devin Singletary | 10.8 | 9.0 | 0.0 | -9.0 |
| Our Team | TE | Dalton Schultz | 8.9 | 9.0 | 0.0 | -9.0 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Bears D/ST | 6.6 | 9.0 | 0.0 | -9.0 |
| Opponent | TE | Dalton Schultz | 8.9 | - | 0.0 | -8.9 |
| Opponent | K | Jake Elliott | 8.0 | - | 0.0 | -8.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Tyjae Spears | 10.1 | 8.0 | 0.0 | -8.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Luther Burden III | 8.1 | 8.0 | 0.0 | -8.0 |
| Our Team | K | Jake Elliott | 8.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | -8.0 |
| Our Team | TE | Hunter Henry | 10.3 | 7.0 | 0.0 | -7.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Bucky Irving | 15.2 | 14.5 | 8.1 | -6.4 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Rams D/ST | 4.2 | 6.0 | 0.0 | -6.0 |
| Opponent | D/ST | Saints D/ST | 5.9 | - | 0.0 | -5.9 |
| Our Team | RB | Sean Tucker | 2.9 | 3.0 | 6.7 | +3.7 |
| Our Team | WR | Emeka Egbuka | 12.0 | 12.0 | 10.4 | -1.6 |
| Opponent | WR | Emeka Egbuka | 12.0 | - | 10.4 | -1.6 |
| Our Team | WR | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Free Agent | RB | Chuba Hubbard | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Free Agent | TE | Harold Fannin Jr. | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Free Agent | D/ST | Steelers D/ST | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Final review from run_013 (2025-12-08)
| Category | Pos | Player | ESPN | LLM | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free Agent | QB | Sam Darnold | 0.0 | - | 22.3 | +22.3 |
| Free Agent | RB | Devin Neal | 0.0 | - | 15.4 | +15.4 |
| Opponent | K | Brandon Aubrey | 8.9 | 8.9 | 24.0 | +15.1 |
| Opponent | QB | Patrick Mahomes | 17.9 | 20.1 | 6.3 | -13.8 |
| Opponent | WR | DJ Moore | 9.1 | 11.9 | 0.6 | -11.3 |
| Our Team | WR | Rashee Rice | 17.1 | 17.0 | 7.4 | -9.6 |
| Opponent | D/ST | Vikings D/ST | 5.2 | 6.3 | 15.0 | +8.7 |
| Opponent | RB | Nick Chubb | 5.3 | 7.5 | 0.3 | -7.2 |
| Our Team | RB | Omarion Hampton | 12.1 | 8.0 | 14.7 | +6.7 |
| Our Team | WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 20.9 | 22.0 | 28.1 | +6.1 |
| Opponent | WR | Keon Coleman | 6.7 | 9.2 | 3.6 | -5.6 |
| Opponent | TE | Dalton Kincaid | 10.0 | 9.6 | 14.1 | +4.5 |
| Opponent | WR | Malik Washington | 8.4 | 8.2 | 4.0 | -4.2 |
| Our Team | K | Jason Myers | 8.3 | 10.0 | 14.0 | +4.0 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Rams D/ST | 6.8 | 9.0 | 6.0 | -3.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Luther Burden III | 10.3 | 8.0 | 11.0 | +3.0 |
| Free Agent | D/ST | Commanders D/ST | 0.0 | - | 3.0 | +3.0 |
| Our Team | TE | Juwan Johnson | 9.7 | 10.0 | 7.8 | -2.2 |
| Our Team | RB | Tyjae Spears | 8.6 | 8.0 | 6.7 | -1.3 |
| Our Team | QB | Jordan Love | 17.6 | 18.0 | 19.3 | +1.3 |
| Our Team | RB | Bucky Irving | 16.4 | 16.0 | 16.1 | +0.1 |
| Opponent | RB | Ollie Gordon II | 3.2 | 7.8 | 7.7 | -0.1 |
| Our Team | QB | Jacoby Brissett | 15.3 | 19.0 | 19.0 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Tetairoa McMillan | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Jameson Williams | 13.8 | 17.3 | 17.3 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | TE | Hunter Henry | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Devin Singletary | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Opponent | RB | Ray Davis | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.
No discrepancies detected this week.